Epidemiological Consequences of Individual Centrality on Wild Chimpanzees.

Abstract

Disease outbreaks are one of the key threats to great apes and other wildlife. Because the spread of some pathogens (e.g., respiratory viruses, sexually transmitted diseases, ectoparasites) are mediated by social interactions, there is a growing interest in understanding how social networks predict the chain of pathogen transmission. In this study, we built a party network from wild chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes), and used agent-based modeling to test: (i) whether individual attributes (sex, age) predict individual centrality (i.e., whether it is more or less socially connected); (ii) whether individual centrality affects an individual's role in the chain of pathogen transmission; and, (iii) whether the basic reproduction number (R₀) and infectious period modulate the influence of centrality on pathogen transmission. We show that sex and age predict individual centrality, with older males presenting many (degree centrality) and strong (strength centrality) relationships. As expected, males are more central than females within their network, and their centrality determines their probability of getting infected during simulated outbreaks. We then demonstrate that direct measures of social interaction (strength centrality), as well as eigenvector centrality, strongly predict disease dynamics in the chimpanzee community. Finally, we show that this predictive power depends on the pathogen's R₀ and infectious period: individual centrality was most predictive in simulations with the most transmissible pathogens and long-lasting diseases. These findings highlight the importance of considering animal social networks when investigating disease outbreaks.