Cyclone Gabrielle as a Design Storm for Northeastern Aotearoa New Zealand Under Anthropogenic Warming

IF 7.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-09-06 DOI:10.1029/2024EF004772
Dáithí A. Stone, Christopher J. Noble, Greg E. Bodeker, Sam M. Dean, Luke J. Harrington, Suzanne M. Rosier, Graham D. Rye, Jordis S. Tradowsky
{"title":"Cyclone Gabrielle as a Design Storm for Northeastern Aotearoa New Zealand Under Anthropogenic Warming","authors":"Dáithí A. Stone,&nbsp;Christopher J. Noble,&nbsp;Greg E. Bodeker,&nbsp;Sam M. Dean,&nbsp;Luke J. Harrington,&nbsp;Suzanne M. Rosier,&nbsp;Graham D. Rye,&nbsp;Jordis S. Tradowsky","doi":"10.1029/2024EF004772","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Cyclone Gabrielle passed along the northern coast of Aotearoa New Zealand in February 2023, producing historic rainfall accumulations and impacts. Gabrielle was an ex-tropical cyclone that stalled and re-energised off the north coast, resembling descriptions of worst case scenarios for the northeast of the country. Here we report on a comparison of the actual forecast of the storm against forecasts under conditions representative of a climate without anthropogenic interference and of a climate +2.0°C warmer than pre-industrial (about 1.0°C cooler and warmer than present respectively). We find that regional total rainfall accumulations from a Gabrielle-like storm are about 10% higher because of the historical anthropogenic warming, and will increase by a larger amount under similar future warming. These differences are driven by a 20% (relative to a non-anthropogenic world) to 30% (relative to a +2.0°C world) rise in peak rainfall rates, which in turn is mainly driven by a more temporally concentrated column-integrated moisture flux. The forecast model generates the larger increase for the +2.0°C world through greater precipitation efficiency, reflecting the importance of unresolved precipitation processes in the climate change response of rainfall extremes.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":7.3000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024EF004772","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Earths Future","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024EF004772","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

Abstract

Cyclone Gabrielle passed along the northern coast of Aotearoa New Zealand in February 2023, producing historic rainfall accumulations and impacts. Gabrielle was an ex-tropical cyclone that stalled and re-energised off the north coast, resembling descriptions of worst case scenarios for the northeast of the country. Here we report on a comparison of the actual forecast of the storm against forecasts under conditions representative of a climate without anthropogenic interference and of a climate +2.0°C warmer than pre-industrial (about 1.0°C cooler and warmer than present respectively). We find that regional total rainfall accumulations from a Gabrielle-like storm are about 10% higher because of the historical anthropogenic warming, and will increase by a larger amount under similar future warming. These differences are driven by a 20% (relative to a non-anthropogenic world) to 30% (relative to a +2.0°C world) rise in peak rainfall rates, which in turn is mainly driven by a more temporally concentrated column-integrated moisture flux. The forecast model generates the larger increase for the +2.0°C world through greater precipitation efficiency, reflecting the importance of unresolved precipitation processes in the climate change response of rainfall extremes.

Abstract Image

加布里埃尔气旋是人为变暖条件下新西兰东北部奥特亚罗瓦地区的设计风暴
2023 年 2 月,"加布里埃尔 "气旋沿新西兰奥特亚罗瓦北部海岸掠过,造成了历史性的累积降雨量和影响。加布里埃尔气旋是一个前热带气旋,在北海岸停滞并重新加入能量,与该国东北部最坏情况的描述相似。在此,我们将风暴的实际预报与在没有人为干扰的气候条件下的预报和比工业化前温度高出 2.0°C 的气候条件下的预报(分别比现在温度低和高出约 1.0°C)进行了比较。我们发现,由于历史上的人为变暖,类似加布里埃尔风暴的区域总降雨量增加了约 10%,而在未来类似的变暖条件下,区域总降雨量将增加更多。造成这些差异的原因是峰值降雨率上升了 20%(相对于非人为世界)至 30%(相对于 +2.0°C 的世界),而这又主要是由于在时间上更加集中的柱状整合水汽通量造成的。预测模式通过更高的降水效率使+2.0°C 世界的降水量增加更多,这反映了未解决的降水过程在极端降雨气候变化响应中的重要性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
求助全文
约1分钟内获得全文 求助全文
来源期刊
Earths Future
Earths Future ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCESGEOSCIENCES, MULTIDI-GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
CiteScore
11.00
自引率
7.30%
发文量
260
审稿时长
16 weeks
期刊介绍: Earth’s Future: A transdisciplinary open access journal, Earth’s Future focuses on the state of the Earth and the prediction of the planet’s future. By publishing peer-reviewed articles as well as editorials, essays, reviews, and commentaries, this journal will be the preeminent scholarly resource on the Anthropocene. It will also help assess the risks and opportunities associated with environmental changes and challenges.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信