An assessment of the CMIP6 performance in simulating Arctic sea ice volume flux via Fram Strait

IF 6.4 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
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Abstract

Numerical models serve as an essential tool to investigate the causes and effects of Arctic sea ice changes. Evaluating the simulation capabilities of the most recent CMIP6 models in sea ice volume flux provides references for model applications and improvements. Meanwhile, reliable long-term simulation results of the ice volume flux contribute to a deeper understanding of the sea ice response to global climate change. In this study, the sea ice volume flux through six Arctic gateways over the past four decades (1979–2014) were estimated in combination of satellite observations of sea ice concentration (SIC) and sea ice motion (SIM) as well as the Pan-Arctic Ice-Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) reanalysis sea ice thickness (SIT) data. The simulation capability of 17 CMIP6 historical models for the volume flux through Fram Strait were quantitatively assessed. Sea ice volume flux simulated from the ensemble mean of 17 CMIP6 models demonstrates better performance than that from the individual model, yet IPSL-CM6A-LR and EC-Earth3-Veg-LR outperform the ensemble mean in the annual volume flux, with Taylor scores of 0.86 and 0.50, respectively. CMIP6 models display relatively robust capability in simulating the seasonal variations of volume flux. Among them, CESM2-WACCM performs the best, with a correlation coefficient of 0.96 and a Taylor score of 0.88. Conversely, NESM3 demonstrates the largest deviation from the observation/reanalysis data, with the lowest Taylor score of 0.16. The variability of sea ice volume flux is primarily influenced by SIM and SIT, followed by SIC. The extreme large sea ice export through Fram Strait is linked to the occurrence of anomalously low air temperatures, which in turn promote increased SIC and SIT in the corresponding region. Moreover, the intensified activity of Arctic cyclones and Arctic dipole anomaly could boost the southward sea ice velocity through Fram Strait, which further enhance the sea ice outflow.

评估 CMIP6 在模拟穿越弗拉姆海峡的北极海冰体积通量方面的性能
数值模式是研究北极海冰变化原因和影响的重要工具。评估 CMIP6 最新模式在海冰体积通量方面的模拟能力,为模式的应用和改进提供了参考。同时,可靠的海冰体积通量长期模拟结果有助于深入理解海冰对全球气候变化的响应。在这项研究中,结合海冰浓度(SIC)和海冰运动(SIM)卫星观测数据以及泛北极冰洋模拟和同化系统(PIOMAS)再分析海冰厚度(SIT)数据,估算了过去40年(1979-2014年)通过北极6个门户的海冰体积通量。对 17 个 CMIP6 历史模式通过弗拉姆海峡的海冰体积通量的模拟能力进行了定量评估。17 个 CMIP6 模式的集合平均值模拟的海冰体积通量比单个模式的模拟表现更好,但 IPSL-CM6A-LR 和 EC-Earth3-Veg-LR 的年体积通量优于集合平均值,泰勒评分分别为 0.86 和 0.50。CMIP6 模式在模拟体积通量的季节变化方面表现出相对较强的能力。其中,CESM2-WACCM 表现最好,相关系数为 0.96,泰勒评分为 0.88。相反,NESM3 与观测/分析数据的偏差最大,泰勒评分最低,为 0.16。海冰体积通量的变化主要受 SIM 和 SIT 的影响,其次是 SIC。通过弗拉姆海峡的极端大量海冰出口与异常低气温的出现有关,而异常低气温反过来又促进了相应区域的 SIC 和 SIT 的增加。此外,北极气旋活动的加强和北极偶极异常可提高通过弗拉姆海峡的海冰南下速度,从而进一步增强海冰外流。
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来源期刊
Advances in Climate Change Research
Advances in Climate Change Research Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science
CiteScore
9.80
自引率
4.10%
发文量
424
审稿时长
107 days
期刊介绍: Advances in Climate Change Research publishes scientific research and analyses on climate change and the interactions of climate change with society. This journal encompasses basic science and economic, social, and policy research, including studies on mitigation and adaptation to climate change. Advances in Climate Change Research attempts to promote research in climate change and provide an impetus for the application of research achievements in numerous aspects, such as socioeconomic sustainable development, responses to the adaptation and mitigation of climate change, diplomatic negotiations of climate and environment policies, and the protection and exploitation of natural resources.
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