Multi-factor coupled forest fire model based on cellular automata

IF 3.7 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH
Zhou Fangrong , Guo Yuning , Qian Guochao , Ma Yi , Wang Guofang
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The risk of forest fires is substantial due to uneven precipitation distributions and abnormal climate change. This study employs cellular automata principles to analyze forest fire behavior, taking into account meteorological elements, combustible material types, and terrain slopes. The Wang Zhengfei model is utilized to compute fire spread speed, and a multifactor coupled forest fire model is developed. Comparisons with experimental data show a mean calculated fire spread speed of 0.69 m/min, which is consistent with the experimental results. Using the forest fire in Anning city, Yunnan Province, as a case study with a mean burned area of 2281 ha, the burned area, rate of change in burned area, and burning area demonstrated an increasing trend, with fluctuating states in the rate of change of the burning area. Employing the controlled variable method to examine forest fire spreading patterns under varying factors such as wind speed, vegetation type, and maximum slope reveals that under wind influence, the fire site adopts an elliptical shape with the downwind direction as the major axis. Quantitatively, when the wind speed increases from 2 m/s to 10 m/s, the burned area expands by a factor of 1.37. The ratio of the combustible material configuration coefficient to the burned area remains consistent across the different vegetation types, and the burned area increases by a factor of 1.92 when the maximum slope increases from 5° to 25°.

基于蜂窝自动机的多因素耦合林火模型
由于降水分布不均和气候变化异常,森林火灾的风险很大。本研究采用蜂窝自动机原理分析森林火灾行为,考虑了气象要素、可燃物质类型和地形坡度。利用王正飞模型计算火灾蔓延速度,并建立了多因素耦合林火模型。与实验数据比较显示,计算出的平均火势蔓延速度为 0.69 米/分钟,与实验结果一致。以云南省安宁市平均烧毁面积为 2281 公顷的森林火灾为例,烧毁面积、烧毁面积变化率和烧毁面积均呈上升趋势,烧毁面积变化率呈波动状态。采用控制变量法研究风速、植被类型和最大坡度等因素变化下的林火蔓延规律,发现在风力影响下,火场呈以下风方向为主轴的椭圆形。从数量上看,当风速从 2 米/秒增加到 10 米/秒时,燃烧面积扩大了 1.37 倍。不同植被类型的可燃物配置系数与燃烧面积之比保持一致,当最大坡度从 5° 增加到 25° 时,燃烧面积增加了 1.92 倍。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
安全科学与韧性(英文)
安全科学与韧性(英文) Management Science and Operations Research, Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality, Safety Research
CiteScore
8.70
自引率
0.00%
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0
审稿时长
72 days
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