Growing older and growing technologically backward? Population ageing and high-technology exports of 171 countries

Abstract

This study examines the impact of population ageing on high-technology exports, employing both theoretical and empirical analyses. Using data of 171 countries from 2000 to 2019, we find that higher population ageing significantly reduces a country’s high-technology exports. On average, a country’s high-technology exports decline by 0.5–1.1 percent for every one percent increase in population ageing. Moreover, the negative effects of ageing populations on high-technology exports are mitigated in countries with greater utilization of industrial robots, higher digital economy development, and superior institutional quality. The mechanism analysis suggests that population ageing primarily influences high-technology exports through increasing production costs and reducing human capital levels. The results remain valid after applying instrumental variables approaches and exploiting an exogenous policy shock. This paper presents the most comprehensive analysis to date of the relationship between a country’s age structure and its export capacity, with a particular focus on high-technology products.