Multi-criteria decision support framework for outdoor heat stress management in urban environments

Abstract

In the face of warming climates, urban planners are increasingly preparing and protecting urban communities from growing risks of heat exposure. There is a need for comprehensive decision support frameworks that can aid urban planners in their efforts to provide context-based solutions to heat exposure in urban environments. The framework proposed in this study enables evidence-based decision-making for heat stress management. The framework incorporates climate classifications, climate data, cooling strategies, heat stress indicators with thresholds, and analysis methods. The proposed framework is implemented in Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale Metropolitan Area using thirteen measurement points. The impact of vegetation cover on heat stress is evaluated using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and Heat Index from June 2023 to August 2023. The research findings indicate a strong correlation between nighttime heat stress and vegetation cover, with an R² value of 0.46 at 50 m, 0.59 at 100 m, 0.67 at 250 m, and 0.67 at 500 m radius around the measurement points. The study demonstrates an overall decrease in heat stress with an increase in vegetation cover during summer, daytime, and nighttime analysis. This framework provides a user-friendly and easy to apply decision support framework to manage outdoor heat stress during climate change.