Agricultural resource management strategies for greenhouse gas mitigation: The land-energy-food-waste nexus based on system dynamics model

Abstract

Transforming agricultural systems to mitigate climate change challenges is one of China's most urgent tasks. The land, energy, food and waste nexus (LEFWN) in the agricultural sector not only improves resource efficiency but also has the potential to contribute to the mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG). However, existing studies have not yet evaluated the potential impact of policy implementation on mitigating GHG within the LEFWN system, especially in identifying trade-offs and synergies. This study developed a system dynamics model (SDM) based on historical data from 2011 to 2020 in Jiangxi, China, incorporating positive and negative feedback mechanisms. This model generated five primary policy scenarios and eleven derived scenarios. The findings show that the SDM highlighted dynamic characteristics and nonlinear relationships within the LEFWN systems. The integrated scenario, which includes bioenergy development, land use policies, and the substitution of organic fertilizers for chemical fertilizers, can potentially decrease GHG emissions by up to about 14.20 %. Significant trade-offs exist between food security policies and other policies, depending on the strategic objectives pertaining to land, energy, or waste management. Policymakers can benefit from a comprehensive understanding of the dynamic interplay between agricultural resources and assessing the effectiveness and utility of different strategies. Assessing the environmental impacts of agricultural transformation can offer empirical evidence to advocate for promoting low-carbon sustainable agriculture and provide insights for developing countries addressing climate change challenges.