Risk assessment of glacial lake outburst flood in the Central Asian Tienshan Mountains

IF 8.5 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-09-07 DOI:10.1038/s41612-024-00755-6

Man Chen, Yaning Chen, Gonghuan Fang, Guoxiong Zheng, Zhi Li, Yupeng Li, Ziyang Zhu

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Abstract

Global warming has accelerated alpine glacier melting and led to an increased risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). This paper extracted glacial lake boundaries in the Tienshan Mountains of Central Asia from 1990 to 2023, analyzed their spatiotemporal variations and evaluated their risk levels under current and future scenarios. The results show that glacial lakes are predominantly distributed in the Central and Western Tienshan, accounting for 75% of the total number in the Tienshan region. The number and area of glacial lakes increased by 148% (from 1837 to 4557) and 71.83% (from 119.73 to 205.73 km2) during 1990 to 2023, with moraine lake expansion predominating. In the Western Tienshan, the high or very high risk of GLOF is 3–4 times that of other areas. By the middle of the twenty-first century, GLOF risk will continue to increase, especially in the Western Tienshan. This study can provide scientific foundation for disaster mitigation in the downstream areas.

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中亚天山冰湖溃决洪水风险评估

全球变暖加速了高山冰川融化，导致冰湖溃决洪水（GLOF）的风险增加。本文提取了中亚天山地区 1990 年至 2023 年的冰川湖边界，分析了其时空变化，并评估了其在当前和未来情景下的风险水平。结果表明，冰川湖主要分布在天山中西部，占天山地区冰川湖总数的 75%。1990-2023年间，冰川湖泊的数量和面积分别增加了148%（从1837个增加到4557个）和71.83%（从119.73平方公里增加到205.73平方公里），其中以冰碛湖扩张为主。在西部天山地区，冰湖溃决的高风险或极高风险是其他地区的 3-4 倍。到 21 世纪中叶，GLOF 风险将继续增加，尤其是在西部天山地区。本研究可为下游地区减灾提供科学依据。

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来源期刊

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science

CiteScore

8.80

自引率

3.30%

发文量

审稿时长

21 weeks

期刊介绍： npj Climate and Atmospheric Science is an open-access journal encompassing the relevant physical, chemical, and biological aspects of atmospheric and climate science. The journal places particular emphasis on regional studies that unveil new insights into specific localities, including examinations of local atmospheric composition, such as aerosols. The range of topics covered by the journal includes climate dynamics, climate variability, weather and climate prediction, climate change, ocean dynamics, weather extremes, air pollution, atmospheric chemistry (including aerosols), the hydrological cycle, and atmosphere–ocean and atmosphere–land interactions. The journal welcomes studies employing a diverse array of methods, including numerical and statistical modeling, the development and application of in situ observational techniques, remote sensing, and the development or evaluation of new reanalyses.