Climate change induced heat and drought stress hamper climate change mitigation in German cereal production

IF 5.6 1区 农林科学 Q1 AGRONOMY
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Context

Agricultural production and climate change strongly influence each other and there are significant efforts to minimize negative impacts in both directions. In particular, breeding progress has succeeded in reducing the carbon footprint (CFP) of cereals over time. However, there is widespread certainty that climate change-related weather extremes have led to stagnation of cereal yields in many global production regions.

Research question

We assume that climate change-related yield stagnation is also evident in variety trials in Germany, which has to date only been shown for on-farm yields. Furthermore, we expect that the stagnation in yields also leads to a stagnation in the downward trend of CFP, and that heat and drought stress in particular increase the CFP of cereals. In addition, we hypothesize that the site-specific soil quality largely determines stress induced increases in CFP.

Methods

We conduct a partial life cycle assessment (LCA) with German variety trial data from 1993 to 2021 and determine the greenhouse gas emissions per unit of land (GHGL), as well as the CFP of winter wheat, winter rye, and winter barley. Further, we evaluate the time trends of yield, GHGL, and CFP using linear and quadratic plateau models. In addition, we calculate spatio-dynamic weather indices (WIs) for moderate, severe and extreme heat and drought stress. Using mixed models, we estimate the explanatory power and effect size of heat and drought WIs on the CFP. Finally, we present the spatial differences of heat and drought on the CFP at different soil qualities.

Results

We show yield plateaus in all crops and stagnating GHGL trends, resulting in a stagnation of the downward trend of CFP, especially for rye and barley. We highlight that heat and drought increase the CFP of all crops. However, the impact of heat and drought on the CFP varies greatly with soil quality across all crops.

Conclusions

We conclude that climate change-induced weather extremes are major challenges not only for cereal production and food security but also for climate change mitigation in the agricultural sector, highlighting the importance of high-yield locations, alongside variety selection and resource-efficient management, for climate change mitigation.

Significance

This study is the first that proves significant yield stagnation in German variety trials. Moreover, this study is the first to analyze the impact of heat and drought stress on cereal CFP, with novel results that proof that climate adaptation will become a crucial aspect of climate change mitigation in field crops.

气候变化诱发的高温和干旱胁迫阻碍了德国谷物生产中的气候变化减缓工作
背景农业生产与气候变化相互影响,为最大限度地减少这两方面的负面影响,人们做出了巨大努力。特别是,随着时间的推移,育种进展成功地减少了谷物的碳足迹(CFP)。然而,人们普遍确信,与气候变化相关的极端天气已导致全球许多产区的谷物产量停滞不前。研究问题我们假定,与气候变化相关的产量停滞不前现象在德国的品种试验中也很明显,而迄今为止这只在农场产量方面有所体现。此外,我们预计产量的停滞也会导致CFP下降趋势的停滞,尤其是高温和干旱胁迫会增加谷物的CFP。此外,我们还假设,特定地点的土壤质量在很大程度上决定了胁迫引起的 CFP 的增加。方法我们利用 1993 年至 2021 年的德国品种试验数据进行了部分生命周期评估(LCA),并确定了单位土地的温室气体排放量(GHGL)以及冬小麦、冬黑麦和冬大麦的 CFP。此外,我们还使用线性和二次高原模型评估了产量、GHGL 和 CFP 的时间趋势。此外,我们还计算了中度、重度和极端高温干旱胁迫的空间动态天气指数(WIs)。利用混合模型,我们估算了高温和干旱 WIs 对 CFP 的解释力和效应大小。最后,我们介绍了不同土壤质量下高温和干旱对 CFP 的空间差异。结果我们发现所有作物的产量都出现了高原现象,GHGL 趋势停滞不前,导致 CFP 下降趋势停滞不前,尤其是黑麦和大麦。我们强调,高温和干旱会增加所有作物的CFP。结论我们得出结论,气候变化引起的极端天气不仅是谷物生产和粮食安全的主要挑战,也是农业部门减缓气候变化的主要挑战,这凸显了高产地区以及品种选择和资源节约型管理对减缓气候变化的重要性。此外,该研究还首次分析了高温和干旱胁迫对谷物CFP的影响,其新颖的结果证明气候适应将成为大田作物减缓气候变化的一个重要方面。
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来源期刊
Field Crops Research
Field Crops Research 农林科学-农艺学
CiteScore
9.60
自引率
12.10%
发文量
307
审稿时长
46 days
期刊介绍: Field Crops Research is an international journal publishing scientific articles on: √ experimental and modelling research at field, farm and landscape levels on temperate and tropical crops and cropping systems, with a focus on crop ecology and physiology, agronomy, and plant genetics and breeding.
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