Simulation of climate change effect on the global distribution of Rosa multiflora.

Abstract

Rosa multiflora, originated from East Asia, is one of the original ancestors of modern roses. It is also an important genetic resource and rootstock for rose cultivation. Due to its high resistance and vigorous growth, R. multiflora has become an invasive species in some introduction sites, such as North America. To explore the correlation between the suitable habitat of R. multiflora and climate change, we predicted its potential geographic distribution with an optimized MaxEnt model based on 1246 distribution records and nine bioclimatic variables. The results showed that the mean temperature of the coldest quarter, minimum temperature of the coldest month, precipitation of the warmest quarter, and isothermality were significant bioclimatic variables affecting the potential geographic distribution of R. multiflora. Under current climate conditions, R. multiflora naturally distributed in the plains and hilly areas to the east and south of the Loess Plateau. The distribution pattern in the mid-holocene was similar to its current distribution, but the highly suitable distribution area was in the south of North China Plain, the Sichuan Basin, and parts of the Middle-Lower Yangtze Plain. During the last interglacial, the suitable areas generally contrac-ted southward, while the highly suitable areas significantly expanded and mainly located in the Sichuan Basin, the Middle-Lower Yangtze Plains, the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, and the Southeast Hills. Beyond its natural distribution in East Asia, R. multiflora had been introduced and spread to most parts of Europe and the central and eastern United States. The distribution area of R. multiflora would expand under three warming scenarios of different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) during 2041-2060 and 2081-2100. Its average distribution center (centroid) would shift towards higher latitude, indicating that the distribution of R. multiflora was closely related to climate change and that global warming might lead to an expansion of its distribution area. These results would improve our understanding of the ecological adaptability of R. multiflora, facilitate the predicting of its future distribution, and provide a theoretical basis for monitoring and early warning measures following its introduction.