Analysis of mortality in Parkinson disease in China: Exploration of recent and future trends

Abstract

Objectives

Parkinson disease (PD) is the third leading cause of mortality among middle-aged and older individuals in China. This study aimed to explore the trends and distribution features of PD mortality in China from 2013 to 2021 and make predictions for the next few decades.

Methods

Relevant data were obtained from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention Disease Surveillance Point system. The joinpoint regression model was used to evaluate trends. The R software was used to predict future trends.

Results

Age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of PD increased from 0.59 per 100,000 individuals to 1.22 per 100,000 individuals from 2013 to 2021, with an average annual percent change (AAPC) of 9.50 (95% CI: 8.24–10.78). The all-age ASMR of PD were higher in male individuals than in female individuals, and ASMR increased with age. The number of deaths and ASMR increased gradually from west to east and from rural to urban areas. Furthermore, ASMR is expected to increase to 2.66 per 100,000 individuals by 2040.

Conclusions

The heightened focus on the ASMR of PD among male individuals, urban areas, eastern China, and individuals aged ≥85 years has become a key determinant in further decreasing mortality, thereby exhibiting novel challenges to effective strategies for disease prevention and control.