{"title":"Possibilities and limitations of anticipatory action in complex crises: acting in advance of flooding in South Sudan","authors":"Evan Easton-Calabria","doi":"10.1111/disa.12654","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Little evidence exists on the design and implementation of anticipatory action (AA) in complex crises. This article examines a 2022 United Nations ‘early action’ pilot in South Sudan in advance of extreme flooding. As a case study of efforts to act in a complex crisis, it contributes to learning on assisting conflict-affected and displaced populations in advance of extreme weather events. The research points towards the possibility and value of implementing forecast-informed early action in complex contexts with limited forecast skills and multiple hazards when trigger-based AA is not possible. It also argues for the need to link AA implemented in complex crises to development and peacebuilding actors and processes. More broadly, examining the perceptions and processes of AA in the form of early action, rather than a formal AA framework, is highly relevant for the AA community as attention is increasingly placed on providing AA in countries affected by fragility and conflict.</p>","PeriodicalId":48088,"journal":{"name":"Disasters","volume":"49 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11603528/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Disasters","FirstCategoryId":"91","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/disa.12654","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Little evidence exists on the design and implementation of anticipatory action (AA) in complex crises. This article examines a 2022 United Nations ‘early action’ pilot in South Sudan in advance of extreme flooding. As a case study of efforts to act in a complex crisis, it contributes to learning on assisting conflict-affected and displaced populations in advance of extreme weather events. The research points towards the possibility and value of implementing forecast-informed early action in complex contexts with limited forecast skills and multiple hazards when trigger-based AA is not possible. It also argues for the need to link AA implemented in complex crises to development and peacebuilding actors and processes. More broadly, examining the perceptions and processes of AA in the form of early action, rather than a formal AA framework, is highly relevant for the AA community as attention is increasingly placed on providing AA in countries affected by fragility and conflict.
期刊介绍：
Disasters is a major, peer-reviewed quarterly journal reporting on all aspects of disaster studies, policy and management. It provides a forum for academics, policymakers and practitioners to publish high-quality research and practice concerning natural catastrophes, anthropogenic disasters, complex political emergencies and protracted crises around the world. The journal promotes the interchange of ideas and experience, maintaining a balance between field reports, case study articles of general interest and academic papers. Disasters: Is the leading journal in the field of disasters, protracted crises and complex emergencies Influences disaster prevention, mitigation and response policies and practices Adopts a world-wide geographical perspective Contains a mix of academic papers and field studies Promotes the interchange of ideas between practitioners, policy-makers and academics.
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