Climate-Driven Projections of Future Global Wetlands Extent

IF 7.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-09-02 DOI:10.1029/2024EF004553
Lucas Hardouin, Bertrand Decharme, Jeanne Colin, Christine Delire
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Abstract

Wetlands are crucial components of the Earth's system, interacting with various processes such as the hydrological cycle, energy exchanges with the atmosphere, and global nitrogen and carbon cycles. The future trajectory of wetlands is anticipated to be influenced not only by direct human activities, but also by climate change. Here we present our assessment of climate-driven global changes in wetlands extent, focusing on the main wetland complexes. We used an approach based on the Topographic Hydrological model (TOPMODEL) and soil liquid water content projections from 14 models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Our analysis reveals a consistent decrease in wetlands extent in the Mediterranean, Central America, and northern South America, with a substantial loss of 28% in the western Amazon Basin for the end of the 21st century (2081–2100) under the SSP370 scenario. Conversely, Central Africa exhibits an increase in wetlands extent, except in the Congo Basin. Nevertheless, most of the areas studied (80%) present uncertain results, due to conflicting projections of changes between the models. Notably, we show that there is significant uncertainty among CMIP6 models regarding liquid soil water content in high latitudes. By narrowing our focus to 10 models, which seem to better represent the thawing of permafrost, we obtain a better inter-model agreement. We then find a modest declines in the overall global area (<5%), but an average loss of 13% beyond 50°N. Specific areas like the Hudson Bay Lowlands experiencing a 21% decrease and the Western Siberian Lowlands a 15% decrease.

Abstract Image

气候驱动的未来全球湿地面积预测
湿地是地球系统的重要组成部分,与水文循环、与大气层的能量交换以及全球氮和碳循环等各种过程相互作用。预计湿地未来的发展轨迹不仅会受到人类直接活动的影响,还会受到气候变化的影响。在此,我们将以主要湿地群为重点,对气候驱动的全球湿地范围变化进行评估。我们采用的方法基于地形水文模型(TOPMODEL)和耦合模型相互比较项目第六阶段(CMIP6)14 个模型的土壤液态水含量预测。我们的分析表明,在 SSP370 情景下,地中海、中美洲和南美洲北部的湿地范围持续缩小,亚马逊盆地西部在 21 世纪末(2081-2100 年)大幅减少 28%。相反,除刚果盆地外,中部非洲的湿地面积有所增加。尽管如此,由于模型之间对变化的预测相互矛盾,大多数研究地区(80%)的结果都不确定。值得注意的是,我们发现 CMIP6 模型对高纬度地区土壤液态水含量的预测存在很大的不确定性。我们将重点缩小到 10 个模型上,这些模型似乎更好地代表了永久冻土的融化,因此我们获得了更好的模型间一致性。随后,我们发现全球总面积略有下降(5%),但北纬 50° 以上的平均降幅为 13%。哈得逊湾低地等特定地区减少了 21%,西西伯利亚低地减少了 15%。
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来源期刊
Earths Future
Earths Future ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCESGEOSCIENCES, MULTIDI-GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
CiteScore
11.00
自引率
7.30%
发文量
260
审稿时长
16 weeks
期刊介绍: Earth’s Future: A transdisciplinary open access journal, Earth’s Future focuses on the state of the Earth and the prediction of the planet’s future. By publishing peer-reviewed articles as well as editorials, essays, reviews, and commentaries, this journal will be the preeminent scholarly resource on the Anthropocene. It will also help assess the risks and opportunities associated with environmental changes and challenges.
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