Developing a dynamic energy budget model to project potential effects of deep-sea mining plumes on the Atlantic deep-sea mussel, Bathymodiolus azoricus

Abstract

Due to the consistent lack of Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) for deep-sea mining scenarios, the potential impacts of this industry on marine ecosystems remain largely unknown. In order to fill this gap, a Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model was developed to study the consequences of toxic sediment plumes derived from deep-sea mining on the energy budget of the Atlantic deep-sea mussel, Bathymodiolus azoricus. Model calibration was based on environmental conditions observed at the Menez Gwen (MG) vent field (Mid-Atlantic Ridge- MAR), assuming a B. azoricus lifespan of 10 years and a maximum shell length of 119 mm. Scenario simulations were conducted to mimic the effects of increased concentrations of toxic sediment plumes on mussel filtration rates, the absorption of reduced substrates by their endosymbionts, and the energetic costs associated with metal toxicity. Data were sourced from B. azoricus and, when necessary, from proxy species. One disturbance scenario (EF1) incorporated measured rates and realistic parameters, while the other (EF2) was intentionally designed to encompass cumulative effects and uncertainties, representing a potential worst-case scenario. Both disturbance scenarios were initiated at three different timings (0, 1200 and 2400 days) to accommodate the mining effects at different stages of the mussels' life cycle. Results indicate that B. azoricus is significantly impacted by toxic sediment plumes, particularly during earlier life stages, potentially leading to severe growth impairment and mortality. These results were integrated into a food web model of the MG vent field, revealing that disruptions to the energetic balance of the vent mussel have widespread consequences for the entire ecosystem. Overall, we argue that this numerical framework offers a valuable tool for conducting ERA and Environmental Impact Assessments (EIA) in the context of industrial deep-sea mining.