Assessing the Potential for Medium-Range Ice Forecasts in the Laurentian Great Lakes

IF 4.6 1区地球科学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Water Resources Research Pub Date : 2024-08-29 DOI:10.1029/2024wr037507

A. J. Yeo, E. J. Anderson, C. Jablonowski, D. M. Wright, G. E. Mann, A. Fujisaki-Manome, B. Mroczka, D. Titze

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Real-time forecasted ice information for large lakes, such as the Great Lakes, is critical for essential operations, such as ice breaking, commercial navigation, search and rescue, and oil spill response. Existing forecast products for large lake ice conditions are not available for medium-range time horizons (5–16 days out), yet they could provide important information for decision making, particularly for ice breaking and spill responses. In addition, ice forecasts for Earth's largest lakes at these timescales could be important for Medium-Range Weather (MRW) forecasting. However, the skill of existing operational products in predicting ice conditions at MRW timescales has not been studied. This work aims to determine how well ice forecasts from a coupled large lake hydrodynamic-ice model perform for MRW forecast horizons. Simulations were carried out for the 2022 Great Lakes ice season, using 8 different 16-day forecast periods. Forecast results were compared to observations of meteorology and ice conditions from the U.S. National Ice Center. Results show the MRW ice forecasts in the Great Lakes outperform persistence-based forecasts. These findings could inform the development or extension of lake operational ice forecasting and the potential of coupling between atmospheric and large lake models at medium-range forecast time scales.

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评估劳伦伦五大湖中期冰情预报的潜力

五大湖等大型湖泊的实时冰情预报信息对于破冰、商业航行、搜救和溢油响应等基本行动至关重要。现有的大型湖泊冰情预报产品无法提供中程时间范围（5-16 天后）的冰情预报，但它们可以为决策，特别是破冰和溢油响应提供重要信息。此外，这些时间范围内的地球最大湖泊冰情预报对于中期天气（MRW）预报也很重要。然而，现有业务产品在预测 MRW 时间尺度的冰情方面的技能尚未得到研究。这项工作旨在确定大型湖泊水动力-冰耦合模式在 MRW 预报范围内的冰情预报效果。采用 8 个不同的 16 天预报期，对 2022 年五大湖冰季进行了模拟。预测结果与美国国家冰雪中心的气象和冰情观测结果进行了比较。结果表明，五大湖区的 MRW 冰情预报优于基于持久性的预报。这些发现可为湖泊冰情业务预报的发展或扩展以及大气和大湖模型在中程预报时间尺度上的耦合潜力提供信息。

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来源期刊

Water Resources Research 环境科学-湖沼学

CiteScore

8.80

自引率

13.00%

发文量

599

审稿时长

3.5 months

期刊介绍： Water Resources Research (WRR) is an interdisciplinary journal that focuses on hydrology and water resources. It publishes original research in the natural and social sciences of water. It emphasizes the role of water in the Earth system, including physical, chemical, biological, and ecological processes in water resources research and management, including social, policy, and public health implications. It encompasses observational, experimental, theoretical, analytical, numerical, and data-driven approaches that advance the science of water and its management. Submissions are evaluated for their novelty, accuracy, significance, and broader implications of the findings.

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