Evaluation of Modeled Diurnal Warming Estimates for Application to Producing Sea Surface Temperature Analyses

Abstract

Accurate knowledge of the amount of diurnal warming present in sea surface temperature (SST) observations at different times and effective depths is important for multiple applications including the production of blended SST analyses. This work explores the ability of a modified Kantha-Clayson-type one-dimensional mixed layer ocean model with wave effects to accurately simulate the observed diurnal warming amplitude over a global grid when forced with coarse resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) outputs. The sensitivity of the modeled diurnal amplitudes to multiple adjustable parameters and model configurations is evaluated to determine whether a preferred configuration can be identified that yields reliable predictions. The accuracy of the predictions is determined through comparison against estimates from operational SST retrievals from geostationary satellites. The results show that a single configuration can yield predictions that reproduce the observed range of diurnal warming amplitudes across a range of seasons and locations and an accurate occurrence frequency of the largest amplitude events. Simulated amplitudes fall along the one-to-one line with observations but with significant scatter due to factors including positioning of the NWP fluxes. The identified configuration is also shown to favorably reproduce diurnal warming observations from multiple research cruises. Overall uncertainty of the simulated diurnal warming amplitude across the different tests ranges between 0.4 K for all observations to ∼1 K for the largest warming events. While the focus is not on model comparisons, the results show improved performance relative to other models. Use of the model appears warranted but the associated uncertainty must be considered.