Anthropogenic Influence Has Increased the Nighttime Heat Stress Risks in Eastern China

IF 7.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-08-30 DOI:10.1029/2023EF004406
Wenyue He, Huopo Chen
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Abstract

Nights with high temperatures and humidity often bring more fatal consequences during the human sleeping process. A significantly increasing trend in the intensity and frequency of humid-heat nights has been observed in eastern China from 1961 to 2014. Detection analyses show that the fingerprinting of anthropogenic forcing, in which the greenhouse gas forcing is critical, can be identified for changes in the humid-heat nights in eastern China. However, the roles of anthropogenic aerosols and external natural forcings cannot be detected, and their effects on the observed changes in humid-heat nights over eastern China are generally negligible. Under different warming scenarios, there is a projected continuation of increasing intensity and frequency of humid-heat nights, although the magnitudes are reduced after constraining. In eastern China, the areal mean intensity of humid-heat nights is projected to increase by approximately 0.9, 1.5, 2.5, and 3.5°C (relative to 1995–2014) for 1.5, 2.0, 3.0, and 4.0°C global warming, while the occurrence of extreme humid-heat night is 1.1, 1.2, 1.2, and 1.3 times more than the current period. Moreover, the population exposed to humid-heat nights in eastern China, particularly in the northern regions, is expected to increase in the future. Our results enhance the understanding of the potential risks of humid-heat nights, which is critical for climate-change policy in China.

Abstract Image

人为影响增加了华东地区的夜间热应激风险
在人类睡眠过程中,高温高湿的夜晚往往会带来更多致命后果。从 1961 年到 2014 年,中国东部地区湿热夜的强度和频率呈明显增加趋势。探测分析表明,中国东部湿热夜的变化可以识别人为强迫的指纹,其中温室气体强迫是关键。然而,人为气溶胶和外部自然强迫的作用无法探测,它们对中国东部湿热夜观测变化的影响总体上可以忽略不计。在不同的气候变暖情景下,预计湿热夜的强度和频率将继续增加,但幅度在限制后有所减小。在全球变暖 1.5、2.0、3.0 和 4.0°C 的情况下,预计华东地区的湿热夜平均强度将分别增加约 0.9、1.5、2.5 和 3.5°C(相对于 1995-2014 年),而极端湿热夜的发生率将分别是目前的 1.1、1.2、1.2 和 1.3 倍。此外,预计未来中国东部,尤其是北方地区受湿热夜影响的人口将增加。我们的研究结果加深了人们对湿热夜潜在风险的认识,这对中国的气候变化政策至关重要。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Earths Future
Earths Future ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCESGEOSCIENCES, MULTIDI-GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
CiteScore
11.00
自引率
7.30%
发文量
260
审稿时长
16 weeks
期刊介绍: Earth’s Future: A transdisciplinary open access journal, Earth’s Future focuses on the state of the Earth and the prediction of the planet’s future. By publishing peer-reviewed articles as well as editorials, essays, reviews, and commentaries, this journal will be the preeminent scholarly resource on the Anthropocene. It will also help assess the risks and opportunities associated with environmental changes and challenges.
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