The correlation between strain rate and earthquake size – A Bayesian probability approach for indicating seismic hazard in the Himalaya and adjacent areas

Abstract

The correlation between the seismicity and strain rate (SR, in 10^-9/yr) is investigated through a combined Bayesian statistical approach to identify the possible locales of seismic hazard in the Himalaya and adjacent areas. The primary result shows that the maximum number of earthquakes in all magnitude (M_w) classes occur in the moderate 30 – 60 SR class. The Bayesian modelled parameter (µ) value for earthquakes in all four SR classes is 0.1315 (0 – 30), 0.1286 (30 – 60), 0.1386 (60 – 90), and 0.1504 (90 – 180). As the µ value is highest in the SR class (90 – 180), the probability of occurrence of larger magnitude event is more. The probability analysis indicates that the future seismic hazard (M_w > 6.0) will be collocated in the highest SR class (90 – 180) with a probability of 35.10 %. This SR class occupies 15 % of the studied area. However, the other SR classes are equally significant for M_w > 6.0 earthquake where the probability varies between 20.55 % (0 – 30), 21.29 % (30 – 60), and 23.06 % (60 – 90) covering 40 %, 30 %, and 15 % of the studied area respectively.