A novel mathematical method to estimate rice phenological parameters across spatial scales for the ORYZA model

Abstract

While crop models are increasingly applied to large-scale areas, inadequate observation data make it difficult to calibrate the model’s phenological parameters at the regional scale. The present study proposed a simple mathematical method for estimating rice phenological parameters across spatial scales for the ORYZA model. The method establishes the cumulative function of the phenological parameters (CFPP). By fitting the CFPP with the so-called growth curve, the 4 phenological parameters of the ORYZA model were transformed into 3 fitted parameters in the equation of CFPP. Functions between the fitted parameters and several meteorological and field management factors were established. These established functions were substituted back into CFPP to construct a modified CFPP. Due to the inter-translational relationship between CFPP and the original phenological parameters, the values of phenological parameters could be estimated by the modified CFPP based on meteorological and field management factors. The newly proposed mathematical method was applied in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB), China. The results indicated that the multi-station average of the absolute value of relative errors for the rice panicle initiation, flowering, and maturity dates within the YRB were 12.3 %, 10.5 %, and 8.7 %, respectively, which were at most 4.8 % larger than that simulated using parameters calibrated using each station’s phenological data. The phenological parameters estimated by the novel mathematical method had close performance to those calibrated directly based on observed data at most stations in terms of rice phenology simulation. The present study provided a new solution for phenological parameter calibration for crop models when applied in a large-scale area.