How to assess conditions for the acceptance of climate change adaptation measures by applying implementation probability Bayesian Networks in participatory processes
IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS
Laura Müller , Max Czymai , Birgit Blättel-Mink , Petra Döll
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
Climate change adaptation measures are best identified participatorily, yet their implementation poses challenges. While Bayesian Network (BN) modeling has been widely used to assess how adaptation measures mitigate risks, we present how to develop, in a participatory process, an innovative BN type that quantifies the implementation probability of adaptation measures by considering conditions for actors’ acceptance as well as cultural worldviews. The BN structure was derived from participatorily identified causal networks, while the conditional probability tables were straightforwardly developed with stakeholder-assigned weights. Sensitivity analysis shows how BN structure and parameters influence the BN results. We found that our approach achieves knowledge integration and learning without overwhelming stakeholders with technical details. As BNs enable exploring scenarios, stakeholders learn that many plausible futures exist. Integrating our approach in participatory adaptation processes contributes to identifying the best combinations of implementation actions, reducing the “know-do gap” in local adaptation challenges.
期刊介绍:
Environmental Modelling & Software publishes contributions, in the form of research articles, reviews and short communications, on recent advances in environmental modelling and/or software. The aim is to improve our capacity to represent, understand, predict or manage the behaviour of environmental systems at all practical scales, and to communicate those improvements to a wide scientific and professional audience.