A boundary perturbation approach for regional wave ensemble forecast

IF 3.1 3区地球科学 Q2 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Ocean Modelling Pub Date : 2024-08-27 DOI:10.1016/j.ocemod.2024.102428

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

In this study, we developed and validated two wave ensemble prediction systems (WEPS) to forecast wave conditions along the southeastern coast of Australia. Using the SWAN model (GEN3 ST6), we integrated complex bathymetric features with an unstructured grid and validated model outputs against buoy observations from Sydney, Port Kembla, and Batemans Bay. The two WEPS, SWAN-WW3 and SWAN-Pert, utilize different methodologies: SWAN-WW3 derives boundary conditions from NCEP’s Global Wave Ensemble System, while SWAN-Pert employs Latin Hypercube Sampling for boundary perturbations based on historical data. Our results demonstrate that both systems effectively predict significant wave height ( $H_{s}$ ), with SWAN-Pert showing improved forecast accuracy in certain metrics compared to SWAN-WW3. Despite underdispersion in spread-skill diagrams, both WEPS exhibited good agreement with observed data. Additionally, rank histograms revealed that SWAN-Pert is more reliable at shorter lead times. This study highlights the potential of integrating statistical sampling methods and ensemble systems for enhancing regional wave forecasting accuracy.

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区域波浪集合预报的边界扰动方法

在这项研究中，我们开发并验证了两个波浪集合预报系统 (WEPS)，用于预报澳大利亚东南沿海的波浪状况。利用 SWAN 模型（GEN3 ST6），我们将复杂的测深特征与非结构化网格整合在一起，并根据悉尼、肯布拉港和贝特曼斯湾的浮标观测结果对模型输出进行了验证。SWAN-WW3 和 SWAN-Pert 这两个 WEPS 采用了不同的方法：SWAN-WW3 的边界条件来自 NCEP 的全球波浪集合系统，而 SWAN-Pert 则根据历史数据对边界扰动进行拉丁超立方采样。我们的研究结果表明，两种系统都能有效预测显著波高（Hs），与 SWAN-WW3 相比，SWAN-Pert 在某些指标上的预测精度有所提高。尽管在传播技能图中出现了分散不足的情况，但两个波高预报系统与观测数据都表现出了良好的一致性。此外，等级直方图显示，SWAN-Pert 在较短的准备时间内更为可靠。这项研究凸显了将统计采样方法与集合系统相结合，提高区域波浪预报精度的潜力。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Ocean Modelling 地学-海洋学

CiteScore

5.50

自引率

9.40%

发文量

审稿时长

19.6 weeks

期刊介绍： The main objective of Ocean Modelling is to provide rapid communication between those interested in ocean modelling, whether through direct observation, or through analytical, numerical or laboratory models, and including interactions between physical and biogeochemical or biological phenomena. Because of the intimate links between ocean and atmosphere, involvement of scientists interested in influences of either medium on the other is welcome. The journal has a wide scope and includes ocean-atmosphere interaction in various forms as well as pure ocean results. In addition to primary peer-reviewed papers, the journal provides review papers, preliminary communications, and discussions.