Weather risks, crop losses, and risk proneness: An examination of evolving risk preferences of rice farmers in Bangladesh

IF 4.8 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
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Abstract

Changing climate poses significant challenges for smallholder rice farmers. Weather-related deviations from longer-term patterns and crop losses due to abiotic hazards can affect farmer risk preferences and drive adaptive responses. In addition, farmers’ proneness to and past experiences with crop risks such as drought, submergence, and excess soil salinity can impact their baseline risk preferences and their response to changing risks. Using data for Bangladesh from two waves of the Rice Monitoring Survey, climate-related data (precipitation and temperature), farmer reports of crop losses, and measures of proneness to abiotic risks, this article estimates how weather deviations from longer-term trends, crop losses, and proneness to crop risks (submergence, drought, and soil salinity) affect elicited risk preferences over time. This research finds evidence in favor of the hypothesis that larger absolute seasonal deviations from past patterns of seasonal mean daily minimum temperature and seasonal total precipitation yield increased risk aversion. In addition, the research provides mixed evidence with respect to risk proneness and farmers’ change in risk preferences over time. Contrary to our original hypothesis, individuals with land more prone to soil salinity become more risk averse rather than less, but, consistent with our hypothesis, those with land more prone to crop submergence become more risk preferring over time. Because of differences in crop experiences and degrees of proneness to risk, risk preferences for farmers in different regions are predicted to evolve along different pathways. This article contributes to the literature on risk preference formation by considering the possibility that less significant deviations than shocks might also contribute to evolving risk preferences. In addition, the article emphasizes the regional heterogeneity of changing preferences. An ancillary finding of this work suggests that risk preferences are only weakly related over time, contrary to other findings in the literature on the stability of risk preferences. Of policy relevance, the differential experiences in weather variability at the regional and local levels yield important differences in changes in preferences and should give rise to careful, regional-level policies to support adaptation to changing weather.

天气风险、作物损失和风险偏好:对孟加拉国稻农风险偏好演变的研究
不断变化的气候给小农水稻种植带来了重大挑战。与天气相关的长期模式偏差以及非生物危害造成的作物损失会影响农民的风险偏好,并促使他们做出适应性反应。此外,农民对干旱、淹没和土壤盐碱度超标等作物风险的敏感程度和过去的经历也会影响他们的基准风险偏好和对不断变化的风险的反应。本文利用孟加拉国两波水稻监测调查的数据、与气候相关的数据(降水和温度)、农民对作物损失的报告以及对非生物风险的敏感性测量,估计了天气偏离长期趋势、作物损失以及对作物风险(淹没、干旱和土壤盐碱化)的敏感性如何随着时间的推移影响所激发的风险偏好。该研究发现了支持以下假设的证据:与过去的季节性日平均最低气温和季节性总降水量模式相比,较大的季节性绝对偏差会增加风险规避。此外,研究还提供了有关风险偏好和农民风险偏好随时间变化的混合证据。与我们最初的假设相反,拥有易受土壤盐碱化影响的土地的个体会变得更厌恶风险,而不是更厌恶风险;但与我们的假设一致的是,拥有易受作物淹没影响的土地的个体随着时间的推移会变得更偏好风险。由于作物种植经验和对风险的敏感程度不同,预计不同地区农民的风险偏好会沿着不同的路径演变。本文认为,比冲击更不显著的偏差也可能导致风险偏好的演变,从而为有关风险偏好形成的文献做出了贡献。此外,文章还强调了偏好变化的区域异质性。这项工作的一个辅助发现表明,风险偏好随着时间的推移只有微弱的相关性,这与关于风险偏好稳定性的文献中的其他发现相反。与政策相关的是,区域和地方层面在天气变异性方面的不同经历导致了偏好变化的重大差异,并应催生审慎的区域层面政策,以支持适应不断变化的天气。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Climate Risk Management
Climate Risk Management Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science
CiteScore
8.20
自引率
4.50%
发文量
76
审稿时长
30 weeks
期刊介绍: Climate Risk Management publishes original scientific contributions, state-of-the-art reviews and reports of practical experience on the use of knowledge and information regarding the consequences of climate variability and climate change in decision and policy making on climate change responses from the near- to long-term. The concept of climate risk management refers to activities and methods that are used by individuals, organizations, and institutions to facilitate climate-resilient decision-making. Its objective is to promote sustainable development by maximizing the beneficial impacts of climate change responses and minimizing negative impacts across the full spectrum of geographies and sectors that are potentially affected by the changing climate.
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