Analysis of the causal effect of the Covid-19 pandemic on parcel delivery: The case of Belo Horizonte, Brazil

IF 4.1 2区工程技术 Q2 BUSINESS

Research in Transportation Business and Management Pub Date : 2024-08-27 DOI:10.1016/j.rtbm.2024.101196

Leise Kelli de Oliveira , João Guilherme da Costa Braga França , Jorge Luís Santos Junior , Gracielle Gonçalves Ferreira de Araújo , Isabela Kopperschmidt de Oliveira , Luísa Tavares Muzzi Sousa , Bruno Vieira Bertoncini , Francisco Gildemir Ferreira da Silva

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on e-commerce is evident and well-reported. However, few studies have measured the effect of restrictive measures on e-commerce. Therefore, this article aims to explore the causal effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on parcel deliveries. For this purpose, different techniques (interrupted time series analysis, counterfactual analysis, and structural equation modelling) were used to verify to what extent the number of cases and deaths from COVID-19 and the rigour of the restriction measures (measured by the stringency index) increased parcel deliveries in Belo Horizonte, Brazil. The results confirm the causal effect of the stringency index that positively influences parcel deliveries. The marginal effect of the stringency index on parcel deliveries was 5.44 deliveries per day during the pandemic compared to before the pandemic. This result means that each unit of stringency index increases the number of parcel deliveries by 5.44. The effects vary depending on the technique used; however, all showed the contribution of stringency index on parcel deliveries.

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Covid-19 大流行对包裹递送的因果效应分析：巴西贝洛奥里藏特的案例

COVID-19 大流行对电子商务的影响是显而易见的，也是有目共睹的。然而，很少有研究衡量限制性措施对电子商务的影响。因此，本文旨在探讨 COVID-19 大流行对包裹递送的因果效应。为此，本文采用了不同的技术（间断时间序列分析、反事实分析和结构方程模型）来验证 COVID-19 的病例数和死亡人数以及限制措施的严格程度（以严格指数衡量）在多大程度上增加了巴西贝洛奥里藏特的包裹递送量。结果证实了严格指数的因果效应，它对包裹投递量产生了积极影响。与大流行前相比，大流行期间严格指数对包裹递送量的边际效应为每天递送 5.44 个包裹。这意味着每增加一个单位的严格指数，包裹递送量就会增加 5.44 次。所使用的技术不同，效果也不尽相同；不过，所有技术都显示了严格指数对包裹投递量的贡献。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Research in Transportation Business and Management Multiple-

CiteScore

7.10

自引率

8.30%

发文量

175

期刊介绍： Research in Transportation Business & Management (RTBM) will publish research on international aspects of transport management such as business strategy, communication, sustainability, finance, human resource management, law, logistics, marketing, franchising, privatisation and commercialisation. Research in Transportation Business & Management welcomes proposals for themed volumes from scholars in management, in relation to all modes of transport. Issues should be cross-disciplinary for one mode or single-disciplinary for all modes. We are keen to receive proposals that combine and integrate theories and concepts that are taken from or can be traced to origins in different disciplines or lessons learned from different modes and approaches to the topic. By facilitating the development of interdisciplinary or intermodal concepts, theories and ideas, and by synthesizing these for the journal''s audience, we seek to contribute to both scholarly advancement of knowledge and the state of managerial practice. Potential volume themes include: -Sustainability and Transportation Management- Transport Management and the Reduction of Transport''s Carbon Footprint- Marketing Transport/Branding Transportation- Benchmarking, Performance Measurement and Best Practices in Transport Operations- Franchising, Concessions and Alternate Governance Mechanisms for Transport Organisations- Logistics and the Integration of Transportation into Freight Supply Chains- Risk Management (or Asset Management or Transportation Finance or ...): Lessons from Multiple Modes- Engaging the Stakeholder in Transportation Governance- Reliability in the Freight Sector