Modelling climate change-induced nonstationarity in rainfall extremes: A comprehensive approach for hydrological analysis

Abstract

Climate change and global warming have induced a dynamic shift in extreme rainfall patterns, leading to nonstationary behaviour. This alteration in behaviour challenges conventional hydrologic design, which assumes stationarity and can yield misleading outcomes. This study aims to address nonstationarity by modelling distribution parameters with covariates. Utilizing a 70-year (1951–2020) high-resolution India Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded dataset, extreme annual rainfall across diverse Indian cities was extracted and modelled. Previous research and goodness-of-fit tests favour the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution for modelling extremes. This study incorporates indices like Nino3.4, dipole mode index, global and local temperature, CO2, and time to characterize nonstationarity in extreme annual rainfall, leveraging climate cycles and global warming. Performance assessment employs the Akaike information criterion, Bayesian information criterion and Likelihood ratio test, while quantile reliability is evaluated through confidence intervals (CIs). Findings reveal widespread nonstationary trends in most grid points, translating to wider CIs in estimated quantiles for chosen non-exceedance probability and covariates in fitted models. Generally, nonstationary conditions are associated with broader confidence bands in return levels, highlighting nonstationary model weaknesses compared to stationary models. However, the results showed that the rainfall extremes follow a nonstationary pattern. Hence, there is a strong need to develop nonstationary models of low uncertainty.