Freeze-thaw landslide susceptibility assessment and its future development on the seasonally frozen ground of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau under warming-humidifying climate

IF 3.8 2区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Cold Regions Science and Technology Pub Date : 2024-08-13 DOI:10.1016/j.coldregions.2024.104293

Guo Yanchen, Zhang Zhihong, Dai Fuchu

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Exploring freeze-thaw landslide susceptibility on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) under warming-humidifying climate is greatly important for preventing and mitigating the risks of landslide hazards on engineering facilities. This study proposed a random forest-based freeze-thaw landslide susceptibility assessment model, where annual rainfall, annual average air temperature (AAAT), slope gradient, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), elevation, lithology, and plan curvature were fully considered. Selecting a study area of 324 km² on the seasonally frozen ground (SFG) of QTP with 1059 freeze-thaw landslides, the model accuracy was validated. Low, moderate, high, and very high susceptibility zones were precisely classified, which accounted for 27.0, 27.5, 28.3, and 17.2%, respectively. Furthermore, its future development was explored under warming, humidifying, and warming-humidifying climates. Results indicated that when the AAAT or annual rainfall increased by 1.16 °C or 20 mm, both high and very high susceptibility zones increased by 2.0 or 1.0%, respectively. When AAAT and annual rainfall simultaneously increased by 1.16 °C and 20 mm, a higher increase in the high and very high susceptibility zones of 2.8% occurred. It was noteworthy that climate warming transitioned low and moderate susceptibility zones into high and very high susceptibility zones. These areas where freeze-thaw landslide susceptibility changed featured the AAAT of 4.29–6.15 °C, annual rainfall of 528.9–552.3 mm, slope gradient of 16–25°, and elevation of 3750-3940 m. Compared to climate warming, the humidifying climate and warming-humidifying climate expanded moderate susceptibility zones, and areas where freeze-thaw landslide susceptibility changed featured the gentler slope gradients of 8–16°. This study can provide a better guidance for safe engineering constructions influenced by freeze-thaw landslides on the QTP.

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气候变暖-变湿条件下青藏高原季节性冻土的冻融滑坡易发性评估及其未来发展

探索气候变暖-变湿条件下青藏高原冻融滑坡易发性，对于预防和减轻工程设施滑坡灾害风险具有重要意义。本研究提出了基于随机森林的冻融滑坡易损性评估模型，充分考虑了年降雨量、年平均气温（AAAT）、坡度、归一化差异植被指数（NDVI）、海拔、岩性、平面曲率等因素。在 QTP 季节性冻土（SFG）上选择了 324 平方公里的研究区域，共发生了 1059 次冻融滑坡，对模型的准确性进行了验证。精确划分了低、中、高和极高易发区，分别占 27.0%、27.5%、28.3% 和 17.2%。此外，还探讨了其在气候变暖、增湿和增湿气候条件下的未来发展。结果表明，当 AAAT 或年降雨量增加 1.16 ℃ 或 20 毫米时，高度和极高度易感区分别增加 2.0% 或 1.0%。当 AAAT 和年降雨量同时增加 1.16 ℃ 和 20 毫米时，高易感地带和极高易感地带的增幅更大，达到 2.8%。值得注意的是，气候变暖使低度和中度易感区过渡到高度和极高度易感区。这些冻融滑坡易发区的AAAT值为4.29-6.15 °C，年降雨量为528.9-552.3 mm，坡度为16-25°，海拔高度为3750-3940 m。与气候变暖相比，湿润气候和暖湿气候扩大了中等易发区，冻融滑坡易发区的坡度较缓，为8-16°。本研究可为瞿塘峡地区受冻融滑坡影响的安全工程建设提供更好的指导。

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来源期刊

Cold Regions Science and Technology 工程技术-地球科学综合

CiteScore

7.40

自引率

12.20%

发文量

209

审稿时长

4.9 months

期刊介绍： Cold Regions Science and Technology is an international journal dealing with the science and technical problems of cold environments in both the polar regions and more temperate locations. It includes fundamental aspects of cryospheric sciences which have applications for cold regions problems as well as engineering topics which relate to the cryosphere. Emphasis is given to applied science with broad coverage of the physical and mechanical aspects of ice (including glaciers and sea ice), snow and snow avalanches, ice-water systems, ice-bonded soils and permafrost. Relevant aspects of Earth science, materials science, offshore and river ice engineering are also of primary interest. These include icing of ships and structures as well as trafficability in cold environments. Technological advances for cold regions in research, development, and engineering practice are relevant to the journal. Theoretical papers must include a detailed discussion of the potential application of the theory to address cold regions problems. The journal serves a wide range of specialists, providing a medium for interdisciplinary communication and a convenient source of reference.