Fertility responses to short-term economic stress: Price volatility and wealth shocks in a pre-transitional settler colony

IF 2.6 1区 历史学 Q1 ECONOMICS
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Abstract

This paper examines the effects of short-term economic stress, captured by general price volatility and a negative wealth shock on short-run fertility behavior in the rural pre-transitional society of the Cape Colony. First, we link complete birth histories of settler women from the South African Families database to consumer price index data to examine the effect of price volatility on conceptions. Next, we link the same birth histories to slave owner and slave emancipation data to examine the effect of a negative wealth shock on conception. Upon slave emancipation in 1834, former slave owners received on average only between 40 and 50 % of the market value of their slaves as compensation, resulting in a substantial reduction in their wealth. Relying on event history models that look simultaneously at stopping and spacing, we do not find strong evidence in support of fertility control in response to general price volatility. We do find greater variance in birth interval lengths for former slaveholding households during and immediately after emancipation, suggesting that a negative wealth shock is associated with increased fertility limitation through postponement in this context.

生育率对短期经济压力的反应:过渡前殖民地的价格波动和财富冲击
本文研究了开普殖民地农村过渡前社会中的短期经济压力,即一般价格波动和负财富冲击对短期生育行为的影响。首先,我们将南非家庭数据库中定居妇女的完整生育史与消费价格指数数据联系起来,以研究价格波动对受孕的影响。接下来,我们将同样的出生史与奴隶主和奴隶解放数据联系起来,研究负财富冲击对受孕的影响。1834 年奴隶解放时,前奴隶主平均只获得其奴隶市场价值 40% 到 50% 的补偿,导致其财富大幅减少。根据同时研究停止生育和生育间隔的事件史模型,我们没有发现有力的证据支持生育控制对一般价格波动的反应。我们确实发现,在解放期间和解放后不久,前奴隶主家庭的生育间隔时间差异更大,这表明在这种情况下,负财富冲击与通过推迟生育增加生育限制有关。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.50
自引率
8.70%
发文量
27
期刊介绍: Explorations in Economic History provides broad coverage of the application of economic analysis to historical episodes. The journal has a tradition of innovative applications of theory and quantitative techniques, and it explores all aspects of economic change, all historical periods, all geographical locations, and all political and social systems. The journal includes papers by economists, economic historians, demographers, geographers, and sociologists. Explorations in Economic History is the only journal where you will find "Essays in Exploration." This unique department alerts economic historians to the potential in a new area of research, surveying the recent literature and then identifying the most promising issues to pursue.
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