Hui Fu, Korhan Özkan, Liselotte Sander Johansson, Martin Søndergaard, Torben Linding Lauridsen, Guixiang Yuan, Erik Jeppesen
{"title":"Causal feedback loops modify lake chlorophyll a–nutrient relationships over two decades of nutrient reductions and climate warming","authors":"Hui Fu, Korhan Özkan, Liselotte Sander Johansson, Martin Søndergaard, Torben Linding Lauridsen, Guixiang Yuan, Erik Jeppesen","doi":"10.1002/lno.12667","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Understanding how the causal feedback between phytoplankton and environmental drivers controlling the chlorophyll <i>a</i> (Chl <i>a</i>, as a proxy of phytoplankton biomass)–nutrient relationships are modulated under different ecosystem conditions is a major challenge in aquatic ecology. Using an empirical dynamic model (convergent cross mapping) on a 20-yr dataset on 20 Danish lakes, we quantified hypothesized causal feedback networks for each lake and related them to lake system properties (e.g., mean water depth, nutrient concentrations and extent of reduction, climate warming) vs. the Chl <i>a</i>–nutrient relationship (estimated from generalized least square models). The results showed prevalent causal feedback across the studied lakes, which demonstrated clear patterns for the tested ecosystem variations. Weaker causal feedbacks were found in deeper lakes and lakes with larger warming trends, while stronger causal feedbacks appeared in lakes experiencing greater reductions of TP (total phosphorus) and TN (total nitrogen). Moreover, these causal feedbacks showed a strong and positive coupled pattern. Most of the causal feedbacks worked as enhancement loops, which promote the sensitivity of phytoplankton to TP, not least in shallow lakes with a high TP reduction, and as regulatory loops, which force a shift in the Chl <i>a</i>–TN relationship from a more negative slope in lakes experiencing a high nutrient reduction and weak warming to a positive slope in lakes with low nutrient reduction and stronger warming. Our findings suggest a mechanistic explanation of how internal feedbacks regulate the Chl <i>a</i>–nutrient relationships across a broad gradient of nutrient reductions, climate warming, and lake morphologies.</p>","PeriodicalId":18143,"journal":{"name":"Limnology and Oceanography","volume":"69 10","pages":"2294-2306"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Limnology and Oceanography","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/lno.12667","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"LIMNOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Understanding how the causal feedback between phytoplankton and environmental drivers controlling the chlorophyll a (Chl a, as a proxy of phytoplankton biomass)–nutrient relationships are modulated under different ecosystem conditions is a major challenge in aquatic ecology. Using an empirical dynamic model (convergent cross mapping) on a 20-yr dataset on 20 Danish lakes, we quantified hypothesized causal feedback networks for each lake and related them to lake system properties (e.g., mean water depth, nutrient concentrations and extent of reduction, climate warming) vs. the Chl a–nutrient relationship (estimated from generalized least square models). The results showed prevalent causal feedback across the studied lakes, which demonstrated clear patterns for the tested ecosystem variations. Weaker causal feedbacks were found in deeper lakes and lakes with larger warming trends, while stronger causal feedbacks appeared in lakes experiencing greater reductions of TP (total phosphorus) and TN (total nitrogen). Moreover, these causal feedbacks showed a strong and positive coupled pattern. Most of the causal feedbacks worked as enhancement loops, which promote the sensitivity of phytoplankton to TP, not least in shallow lakes with a high TP reduction, and as regulatory loops, which force a shift in the Chl a–TN relationship from a more negative slope in lakes experiencing a high nutrient reduction and weak warming to a positive slope in lakes with low nutrient reduction and stronger warming. Our findings suggest a mechanistic explanation of how internal feedbacks regulate the Chl a–nutrient relationships across a broad gradient of nutrient reductions, climate warming, and lake morphologies.
期刊介绍:
Limnology and Oceanography (L&O; print ISSN 0024-3590, online ISSN 1939-5590) publishes original articles, including scholarly reviews, about all aspects of limnology and oceanography. The journal''s unifying theme is the understanding of aquatic systems. Submissions are judged on the originality of their data, interpretations, and ideas, and on the degree to which they can be generalized beyond the particular aquatic system examined. Laboratory and modeling studies must demonstrate relevance to field environments; typically this means that they are bolstered by substantial "real-world" data. Few purely theoretical or purely empirical papers are accepted for review.