Data-driven modelling of coastal storm erosion for real-time forecasting at a wave-dominated embayed beach

IF 4.2 2区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Coastal Engineering Pub Date : 2024-08-14 DOI:10.1016/j.coastaleng.2024.104596

Raimundo Ibaceta , Mitchell D. Harley

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Emergency managers have an increasing need for tools to enhance preparedness to extreme coastal storms and support disaster risk reduction measures. With the emergence of Early Warning Systems (EWSs) for coastal storm hazards, a fundamental challenge is the accurate prediction of sandy beach erosion at lead times of days to weeks corresponding to an approaching storm event. This work presents a data-driven modelling approach to predict storm-driven beach erosion (shoreline change) using a large dataset of 276 individual storm events at Narrabeen-Collaroy Beach, SE Australia. Correlation analysis between individual storm characteristics and shoreline response at three locations along the embayment with varying exposure to the prevailing waves indicates that cumulative storm wave energy is the dominant driver of storm erosion at this site. This is followed by the pre-storm beach width, storm wave direction and to a minimal extent, storm wave period and water levels. A multi-linear regression model of storm erosion is developed and found to accurately predict shoreline change due to individual storm events (RMSE = 3.7 m–6.4 m). This work highlights the value of high-frequency shoreline data for storm erosion forecasting and provides a framework for real-time forecasting applications.

查看原文本刊更多论文

以数据为驱动的沿海风暴侵蚀建模，用于在波浪为主的内滩进行实时预报

应急管理人员越来越需要一些工具来加强对极端沿海风暴的防范，并支持减少灾害风险的措施。随着沿海风暴灾害预警系统（EWS）的出现，一个基本挑战是如何在风暴来临前几天到几周内准确预测沙滩侵蚀情况。这项研究提出了一种数据驱动的建模方法，利用澳大利亚东南部 Narrabeen-Collaroy 海滩 276 个单独风暴事件的大型数据集，预测风暴驱动的海滩侵蚀（海岸线变化）。沿海湾的三个地点受盛行波浪的影响程度不同，单个风暴特征与海岸线响应之间的相关性分析表明，累积的风暴波浪能量是该地点风暴侵蚀的主要驱动因素。其次是暴风雨前的海滩宽度、暴风雨波浪方向，以及最小程度上的暴风雨波浪周期和水位。建立的风暴侵蚀多线性回归模型可准确预测单个风暴事件造成的海岸线变化（RMSE = 3.7 米-6.4 米）。这项工作凸显了高频海岸线数据在风暴侵蚀预报中的价值，并为实时预报应用提供了一个框架。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Coastal Engineering 工程技术-工程：大洋

CiteScore

9.20

自引率

13.60%

发文量

审稿时长

3.5 months

期刊介绍： Coastal Engineering is an international medium for coastal engineers and scientists. Combining practical applications with modern technological and scientific approaches, such as mathematical and numerical modelling, laboratory and field observations and experiments, it publishes fundamental studies as well as case studies on the following aspects of coastal, harbour and offshore engineering: waves, currents and sediment transport; coastal, estuarine and offshore morphology; technical and functional design of coastal and harbour structures; morphological and environmental impact of coastal, harbour and offshore structures.