Tropical cyclones and fertility: New evidence from developing countries

IF 6.6 2区经济学 Q1 ECOLOGY

Ecological Economics Pub Date : 2024-08-24 DOI:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2024.108341

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Abstract

Does exposure to tropical cyclones affect fertility? This paper addresses this question by constructing a panel dataset from geolocated micro-data about the fertility history of mothers along with their local exposure to tropical cyclones for a sample of six developing countries for the 1985–2015 period. We then estimate the causal effect of tropical cyclone shocks on women’s likelihood of giving birth. We find evidence that tropical cyclone exposure has a significantly negative effect on motherhood. A cyclonic wind exposure between 60 and 117 km/h (resp. at least of 118 km/h) decreases the probability of giving birth by 7.8 (resp. 7.0) points a year after exposure. We also observed that the magnitude of the effect varies with the degree of cyclonic exposure associated with the mothers’ living environment and the number of children ever born. In particular, the fall in the likelihood of giving birth is lower for mothers living in cyclone-prone areas and for those who already have children. Alternative specifications of our baseline model provide further insights: (i) recent past exposure to cyclones was associated with a lower decrease in fertility when exposed once again; and (ii) no evidence of non-linearities was observed in the effect.

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热带气旋与生育率：发展中国家的新证据

受热带气旋影响会影响生育率吗？本文针对这一问题，以六个发展中国家为样本，通过地理定位微观数据构建了一个面板数据集，该数据集包含了 1985-2015 年间母亲的生育历史及其当地的热带气旋暴露情况。然后，我们估算了热带气旋冲击对妇女生育可能性的因果效应。我们发现有证据表明，热带气旋对妇女生育有显著的负面影响。时速在 60 至 117 公里（或至少 118 公里）之间的龙卷风会使一年后的生育概率降低 7.8（或 7.0）个百分点。我们还观察到，这种影响的程度随母亲生活环境的气旋暴露程度和曾经生育的孩子数量而变化。特别是，生活在气旋多发地区和已经有孩子的母亲的生育可能性下降幅度较低。我们的基线模型的其他规格提供了进一步的启示：(i) 近期曾受气旋影响，再次受气旋影响时生育率下降较低；(ii) 没有观察到非线性效应的证据。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Ecological Economics 环境科学-环境科学

CiteScore

12.00

自引率

5.70%

发文量

313

审稿时长

6 months

期刊介绍： Ecological Economics is concerned with extending and integrating the understanding of the interfaces and interplay between "nature''s household" (ecosystems) and "humanity''s household" (the economy). Ecological economics is an interdisciplinary field defined by a set of concrete problems or challenges related to governing economic activity in a way that promotes human well-being, sustainability, and justice. The journal thus emphasizes critical work that draws on and integrates elements of ecological science, economics, and the analysis of values, behaviors, cultural practices, institutional structures, and societal dynamics. The journal is transdisciplinary in spirit and methodologically open, drawing on the insights offered by a variety of intellectual traditions, and appealing to a diverse readership. Specific research areas covered include: valuation of natural resources, sustainable agriculture and development, ecologically integrated technology, integrated ecologic-economic modelling at scales from local to regional to global, implications of thermodynamics for economics and ecology, renewable resource management and conservation, critical assessments of the basic assumptions underlying current economic and ecological paradigms and the implications of alternative assumptions, economic and ecological consequences of genetically engineered organisms, and gene pool inventory and management, alternative principles for valuing natural wealth, integrating natural resources and environmental services into national income and wealth accounts, methods of implementing efficient environmental policies, case studies of economic-ecologic conflict or harmony, etc. New issues in this area are rapidly emerging and will find a ready forum in Ecological Economics.

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