Interdecadal shifts of ENSO influences on Spring Central Asian precipitation

IF 8.5 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-08-23 DOI:10.1038/s41612-024-00742-x

Mengyuan Yao, Haosu Tang, Gang Huang, Renguang Wu

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Abstract

Spring Central Asian precipitation (SCAP) holds significant implications for local agriculture and ecosystems, with its variability mainly modulated by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The ENSO–SCAP relationship has experienced pronounced interdecadal shifts, though mechanisms remain elusive. Based on observations and climate model simulations, these shifts may result from transitions in ENSO-induced meridional circulation and Rossby wave trains triggered by North Atlantic (NA) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. During high (low) correlation periods, ENSO induces strong (weak) vertical motion anomalies over Central Asia, while NA SST anomalies exert a weak (strong) counteracting effect, modulated by the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). In the positive (negative) phase of PDO, a slow (fast) decaying ENSO triggers a strong (weak) NA horseshoe-like SST anomaly in the post-ENSO spring, affecting the ENSO–SCAP relationship. Our study identifies a strengthening trend in the ENSO–SCAP relationship since the 2000s, indicating improved predictability for SCAP in recent decades.

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厄尔尼诺/南方涛动对中亚春季降水影响的年代际变化

中亚春季降水（SCAP）对当地农业和生态系统具有重要影响，其变化主要受厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）的调节。厄尔尼诺/南方涛动与 SCAP 的关系经历了明显的年代际变化，但其机制仍然难以捉摸。根据观测数据和气候模式模拟，这些变化可能是由厄尔尼诺/南方涛动引起的经向环流和北大西洋海面温度（SST）异常触发的罗斯比波列的转变造成的。在高（低）相关期，厄尔尼诺/南方涛动在中亚上空诱发强（弱）垂直运动异常，而北大西洋海面温度异常则在太平洋十年涛动（PDO）的调节下产生弱（强）反作用。在 PDO 正（负）态阶段，慢（快）衰减的 ENSO 会在 ENSO 后的春季引发强（弱）的 NA 马蹄形 SST 异常，从而影响 ENSO-SCAP 关系。我们的研究发现，自 2000 年代以来，ENSO-SCAP 关系呈加强趋势，表明近几十年来 SCAP 的可预测性有所提高。

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来源期刊

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science

CiteScore

8.80

自引率

3.30%

发文量

审稿时长

21 weeks

期刊介绍： npj Climate and Atmospheric Science is an open-access journal encompassing the relevant physical, chemical, and biological aspects of atmospheric and climate science. The journal places particular emphasis on regional studies that unveil new insights into specific localities, including examinations of local atmospheric composition, such as aerosols. The range of topics covered by the journal includes climate dynamics, climate variability, weather and climate prediction, climate change, ocean dynamics, weather extremes, air pollution, atmospheric chemistry (including aerosols), the hydrological cycle, and atmosphere–ocean and atmosphere–land interactions. The journal welcomes studies employing a diverse array of methods, including numerical and statistical modeling, the development and application of in situ observational techniques, remote sensing, and the development or evaluation of new reanalyses.