Do Political Relations Colour Chinaʼs Trade With Southeast Asian Partners? A Vector Autoregression Approach

IF 1.4 3区社会学 Q1 AREA STUDIES

Asia & the Pacific Policy Studies Pub Date : 2024-08-22 DOI:10.1002/app5.400

Brandon Harrington

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

This paper investigates whether and how export growth to China varies following shocks in bilateral political relations between China and six Southeast Asian countries—Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam—between 2000 and 2019. High-frequency news data is used to quantify bilateral political relations between each of the six countries and China. Then, a net cooperation index, plus separate indices of political cooperation and conflict, are placed in an augmented gravity model of trade situated in a vector autoregression framework alongside real exchange rate and industrial production variables to examine the short- (months) and long-run (years) effects of shocks to bilateral political relations on each countryʼs exports growth to China. The results reveal that political relations with China played a role in Thailandʼs and Vietnamʼs exports growth to China but not in Indonesiaʼs, Malaysiaʼs, the Philippinesʼ and Singaporeʼs, and contribute new findings to the literature on politics and trade. Code and data for the analysis is available at: https://github.com/tradepolsrepository/tradepols.git.

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政治关系是否影响了中国与东南亚伙伴的贸易？向量自回归方法

本文研究了 2000 年至 2019 年间，中国与东南亚六国--印度尼西亚、马来西亚、菲律宾、新加坡、泰国和越南--之间的双边政治关系受到冲击后，对华出口增长是否以及如何变化。高频新闻数据用于量化这六个国家中每个国家与中国之间的双边政治关系。然后，将净合作指数以及政治合作和冲突的独立指数与实际汇率和工业生产变量一起置于向量自回归框架下的增强型贸易引力模型中，以检验双边政治关系冲击对各国对华出口增长的短期（月）和长期（年）影响。结果显示，与中国的政治关系对泰国和越南的对华出口增长有影响，但对印尼、马来西亚、菲律宾和新加坡的出口增长没有影响，这为政治与贸易方面的文献提供了新的发现。分析代码和数据可在以下网址获取：https://github.com/tradepolsrepository/tradepols.git。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Asia & the Pacific Policy Studies AREA STUDIES-

CiteScore

3.20

自引率

5.30%

发文量

审稿时长

6 weeks

期刊介绍： Asia & the Pacific Policy Studies is the flagship journal of the Crawford School of Public Policy at The Australian National University. It is a peer-reviewed journal that targets research in policy studies in Australia, Asia and the Pacific, across a discipline focus that includes economics, political science, governance, development and the environment. Specific themes of recent interest include health and education, aid, migration, inequality, poverty reduction, energy, climate and the environment, food policy, public administration, the role of the private sector in public policy, trade, foreign policy, natural resource management and development policy. Papers on a range of topics that speak to various disciplines, the region and policy makers are encouraged. The goal of the journal is to break down barriers across disciplines, and generate policy impact. Submissions will be reviewed on the basis of content, policy relevance and readability.