Building the Empirical Puzzle on Impact of Macroeconomic Determinants on GST Revenue: An Empirical Investigation via ARDL Bound Test Perspective

Abstract

The revenue mobilization remains a challenge for many countries, especially developing countries such as India. Therefore, this study explores the macroeconomic determinants of Goods and Service Tax (GST) revenue of the government in India as GST constitutes a major share in the Own Tax Revenue (OTR) of the government in India. The current study has employed the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to examine the macroeconomic determinants of GST taxation revenue of the government in India. The results reveal that foreign direct investment, depreciation in the exchange rate and foreign exchange reserves have a favorable impact on the GST revenue of the government in India. Furthermore, the gross fiscal deficits of the government and inflation have a detrimental effect on the GST revenue collection of the government in India. The results of the study are supported by the Tanzi effect and the Tanzi–Olivera effect for the detrimental effect of inflation and gross fiscal deficit on the GST revenue of the government in India. The current study has major policy implications for the government, policymakers, and researchers. The empirical results illustrates that the government may put a stringent check on inflation and gross fiscal deficit of the country to improve their GST collections. Moreover, the government should try to focus on foreign direct investment, trade openness, and foreign exchange reserve in India to increase their GST revenue. Meanwhile, the current study can be used as a base for conducting future studies at national and international levels for examining the determinants of other taxation revenue of the government by incorporating other country specific variables. This study may act as a novel contribution to the available literature on the macroeconomic determinants of taxation revenue in India. To the knowledge, it will be the first study in India to especially explore the determinants of GST revenue of the government in India. However, the findings of the study need to be generalize in future by incorporating a larger sample size as GST is still in its introductory phase in India.