Optimal vaccine allocation strategy: Theory and application to the early stage of COVID-19 in Japan.

IF 2.6 4区 工程技术 Q1 Mathematics
Toshikazu Kuniya, Taisuke Nakata, Daisuke Fujii
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

In this paper, we construct an age-structured epidemic model to analyze the optimal vaccine allocation strategy in an epidemic. We focus on two topics: the first one is the optimal vaccination interval between the first and second doses, and the second one is the optimal vaccine allocation ratio between young and elderly people. On the first topic, we show that the optimal interval tends to become longer as the relative efficacy of the first dose to the second dose (RE) increases. On the second topic, we show that the heterogeneity in the age-dependent susceptibility (HS) affects the optimal allocation ratio between young and elderly people, whereas the heterogeneity in the contact frequency among different age groups (HC) tends to affect the effectiveness of the vaccination campaign. A counterfactual simulation suggests that the epidemic wave in the summer of 2021 in Japan could have been greatly mitigated if the optimal vaccine allocation strategy had been taken.

最佳疫苗分配策略:日本 COVID-19 早期阶段的理论与应用。
本文构建了一个年龄结构流行病模型,以分析流行病中的最佳疫苗分配策略。我们重点研究了两个问题:第一个问题是第一剂和第二剂之间的最佳接种间隔,第二个问题是年轻人和老年人之间的最佳疫苗分配比例。关于第一个问题,我们的研究表明,随着第一剂疫苗与第二剂疫苗的相对效力(RE)的增加,最佳接种间隔趋于变长。关于第二个问题,我们的研究表明,与年龄相关的易感性的异质性(HS)会影响年轻人和老年人之间的最佳分配比例,而不同年龄组之间接触频率的异质性(HC)往往会影响疫苗接种活动的效果。反事实模拟表明,如果采取了最佳疫苗分配策略,2021 年夏季日本的流行病浪潮可能会大大缓解。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering
Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering 工程技术-数学跨学科应用
CiteScore
3.90
自引率
7.70%
发文量
586
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering (MBE) is an interdisciplinary Open Access journal promoting cutting-edge research, technology transfer and knowledge translation about complex data and information processing. MBE publishes Research articles (long and original research); Communications (short and novel research); Expository papers; Technology Transfer and Knowledge Translation reports (description of new technologies and products); Announcements and Industrial Progress and News (announcements and even advertisement, including major conferences).
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