The role of economic news in predicting suicides

IF 2.2 3区医学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics & Human Biology Pub Date : 2024-08-07 DOI:10.1016/j.ehb.2024.101413

Francesco Moscone , Elisa Tosetti , Giorgio Vittadini

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

In this paper we explore the role of media and language used to comment on economic news in nowcasting and forecasting suicides in England and Wales. This is an interesting question, given the large delay in the release of official statistics on suicides. We use a large data set of over 200,000 news articles published in six major UK newspapers from 2001 to 2015 and carry sentiment analysis of the language used to comment on economic news. We extract daily indicators measuring a set of negative emotions that are often associated with poor mental health and use them to explain and forecast national daily suicide figures. We find that highly negative comments on the economic situation in newspaper articles are predictors of higher suicide numbers, especially when using words conveying stronger emotions of fear and despair. Our results suggest that media language carrying very strong, negative feelings is an early signal of a deterioration in a population’s mental health.

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经济新闻在预测自杀事件中的作用

在本文中，我们探讨了媒体和经济新闻评论语言在预测和预报英格兰和威尔士自杀事件中的作用。鉴于自杀事件官方统计数据的发布存在较大延迟，这是一个有趣的问题。我们使用了 2001 年至 2015 年英国六大报纸发表的 20 多万篇新闻报道的大型数据集，并对评论经济新闻时使用的语言进行了情感分析。我们提取了衡量一系列负面情绪的每日指标，这些负面情绪通常与心理健康状况不佳有关，并用它们来解释和预测全国每日自杀人数。我们发现，报纸文章中对经济形势的高度负面评论是较高自杀人数的预测因素，尤其是在使用表达恐惧和绝望等强烈情绪的词语时。我们的研究结果表明，带有强烈负面情绪的媒体语言是人口心理健康状况恶化的早期信号。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Economics & Human Biology 医学-公共卫生、环境卫生与职业卫生

CiteScore

4.50

自引率

12.00%

发文量

审稿时长

61 days

期刊介绍： Economics and Human Biology is devoted to the exploration of the effect of socio-economic processes on human beings as biological organisms. Research covered in this (quarterly) interdisciplinary journal is not bound by temporal or geographic limitations.