Revisiting the risk of introduction of Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) into the United States – An updated semi-quantitative risk assessment

Abstract

Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) is associated with encephalitis in humans and reproductive and neurological illness in pigs. JEV has expanded beyond its native distribution in southeast Asia, with identifications in Europe (2010) and Africa (2016), and most recently, its spread into mainland Australia (2021−2022). The introduction of JEV into the United States (US) is a public health risk, and could also impact animal health and the food supply. To efficiently and cost-effectively manage risk, a better understanding of how and where diseases will be introduced, transmitted, and spread is required. To achieve this objective, we updated our group's previous qualitative risk assessment using an established semi-quantitative risk assessment tool (MINTRISK) to compare the overall rate of introduction and risk, including impacts, of JEV in seven US regions. The rate of introduction from the current region of distribution was considered negligible for the Northeast, Midwest, Rocky Mountain, West, Alaska, and Hawaii regions. The South region was the only region with a pathway that had a non-negligible rate of introduction; infected mosquito eggs and larvae introduced via imported used tires (very low; 95% uncertainty interval (UI) = negligible to high). The overall risk estimate for the South was very high (95% UI = very low to very high). Based on this risk assessment, the South region should be prioritized for surveillance activities to ensure the early detection of JEV. The assumptions used in this risk assessment, due to the lack of information about the global movement of mosquitoes, number of feral pigs in the US, the role of non-ardeid wild birds in transmission, and the magnitude of the basic reproduction ratio of JEV in a novel region, need to be fully considered as these impact the estimated probability of establishment.