Mapping consumptions and market size of cocaine, amphetamine and MDMA through wastewater analysis: A Dutch case study

IF 5.2 1区医学 Q1 PSYCHIATRY

Addiction Pub Date : 2024-08-21 DOI:10.1111/add.16649

Thomas L. ter Laak, Erik Emke, Nicole Dolot, Emiel E. van Loon, Margo M. E. van der Kooi, Arian C. van Asten, Pim de Voogt

{"title":"Mapping consumptions and market size of cocaine, amphetamine and MDMA through wastewater analysis: A Dutch case study","authors":"Thomas L. ter Laak, Erik Emke, Nicole Dolot, Emiel E. van Loon, Margo M. E. van der Kooi, Arian C. van Asten, Pim de Voogt","doi":"10.1111/add.16649","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div>\n \n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Background and Aims</h3>\n \n <p>Illicit drug consumption is associated with public health effects and criminal activities. This study aimed to estimate Illicit drug consumption and annual market in the Netherlands from wastewater analysis of drug residues.</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Methods</h3>\n \n <p>Residues of cocaine, amphetamine and 3,4-methylene dioxymethamphetamine (MDMA) were measured between 2015 and 2022 in 30 Dutch wastewater treatment plants serving both rural and urban populations. These wastewater treatment plants covered 20% of the total Dutch population. The Dutch annual retail market was estimated by extrapolating consumption to the total Dutch population, back-calculating consumption volume, correcting for drug purity and street price collected in voluntary checking services, and accounting for the correlation of consumption and urbanity.</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Results</h3>\n \n <p>The per capita MDMA and cocaine consumption correlated positively with the urbanity of the wastewater treatment plant catchments with r<sup>2</sup> of 31% and 64%, respectively. Amphetamine did not show a significant correlation with urbanity. The three studied drugs were conservatively estimated to cover an average annual market value of 903 (95% prediction interval 829 to 987) million Euro for the studied period. Market estimations from prevalence figures and interceptions of international trade were similar.</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Conclusions</h3>\n \n <p>Illicit drug consumption in the Netherlands appears to correlate positively with urban (in contrast to rural) areas. Wastewater analysis can be used to estimate the volume and monetary value of illicit drug markets as a proof of concept.</p>\n </section>\n </div>","PeriodicalId":109,"journal":{"name":"Addiction","volume":"120 1","pages":"116-125"},"PeriodicalIF":5.2000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11638510/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Addiction","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/add.16649","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"PSYCHIATRY","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background and Aims

Illicit drug consumption is associated with public health effects and criminal activities. This study aimed to estimate Illicit drug consumption and annual market in the Netherlands from wastewater analysis of drug residues.

Methods

Residues of cocaine, amphetamine and 3,4-methylene dioxymethamphetamine (MDMA) were measured between 2015 and 2022 in 30 Dutch wastewater treatment plants serving both rural and urban populations. These wastewater treatment plants covered 20% of the total Dutch population. The Dutch annual retail market was estimated by extrapolating consumption to the total Dutch population, back-calculating consumption volume, correcting for drug purity and street price collected in voluntary checking services, and accounting for the correlation of consumption and urbanity.

Results

The per capita MDMA and cocaine consumption correlated positively with the urbanity of the wastewater treatment plant catchments with r² of 31% and 64%, respectively. Amphetamine did not show a significant correlation with urbanity. The three studied drugs were conservatively estimated to cover an average annual market value of 903 (95% prediction interval 829 to 987) million Euro for the studied period. Market estimations from prevalence figures and interceptions of international trade were similar.

Conclusions

Illicit drug consumption in the Netherlands appears to correlate positively with urban (in contrast to rural) areas. Wastewater analysis can be used to estimate the volume and monetary value of illicit drug markets as a proof of concept.

Abstract Image

查看原文本刊更多论文

通过废水分析了解可卡因、苯丙胺和摇头丸的消费情况和市场规模：荷兰案例研究。

背景和目的：非法药物消费与公共健康影响和犯罪活动有关。本研究旨在通过对废水中的毒品残留物进行分析，估算荷兰的非法毒品消费量和年度市场：方法：在 2015 年至 2022 年期间，对服务于农村和城市人口的 30 家荷兰污水处理厂的可卡因、苯丙胺和 3,4-亚甲基二氧甲基苯丙胺（MDMA）残留量进行了测量。这些污水处理厂覆盖了荷兰总人口的 20%。荷兰每年的零售市场是通过将消费量推算到荷兰总人口、反向计算消费量、校正自愿检查服务中收集的毒品纯度和街头价格以及考虑消费量与城市化的相关性估算得出的：结果：摇头丸和可卡因的人均消费量与污水处理厂集水区的城市化程度呈正相关，r2 分别为 31% 和 64%。苯丙胺与城市化程度的相关性不明显。据保守估计，在研究期间，三种研究药物的年均市场价值为 9.03 亿欧元（95% 预测区间为 8.29 至 9.87 亿欧元）。根据流行率数字和国际贸易截获量得出的市场估算值相差无几：荷兰的非法药物消费似乎与城市（而非农村）地区呈正相关。废水分析可用于估算非法药物市场的数量和货币价值，作为概念验证。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Addiction 医学-精神病学

CiteScore

10.80

自引率

6.70%

发文量

319

审稿时长

3 months

期刊介绍： Addiction publishes peer-reviewed research reports on pharmacological and behavioural addictions, bringing together research conducted within many different disciplines. Its goal is to serve international and interdisciplinary scientific and clinical communication, to strengthen links between science and policy, and to stimulate and enhance the quality of debate. We seek submissions that are not only technically competent but are also original and contain information or ideas of fresh interest to our international readership. We seek to serve low- and middle-income (LAMI) countries as well as more economically developed countries. Addiction’s scope spans human experimental, epidemiological, social science, historical, clinical and policy research relating to addiction, primarily but not exclusively in the areas of psychoactive substance use and/or gambling. In addition to original research, the journal features editorials, commentaries, reviews, letters, and book reviews.