Nils Gornemann , Sebastian Hildebrand , Keith Kuester
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
In a simple New Keynesian open economy setting, we analyze how local input shortages influence policy transmission and equilibrium determinacy. Shortages increase the elasticity of the local price of the scarce factor to domestic economic activity, affecting the cyclicality of marginal costs and incomes. As a result, the slope of both the Phillips and the IS curve is altered, crucially influencing monetary and fiscal policy transmission. These changes are affected by factor ownership and propensities to consume. Theoretically, shortages can also raise the risk of self-fulfilling fluctuations if a rising price of the constrained factor boosts incomes for agents with high propensities to consume. We illustrate these channels for the 2022 German energy crisis.
在一个简单的新凯恩斯开放经济环境中，我们分析了本地投入短缺如何影响政策传导和均衡确定性。短缺会增加本地稀缺要素价格对国内经济活动的弹性，影响边际成本和收入的周期性。因此，菲利普斯曲线和 IS 曲线的斜率都会发生变化，从而对货币和财政政策的传导产生重要影响。这些变化受到要素所有权和消费倾向的影响。从理论上讲，如果受限要素的价格上涨提高了消费倾向高的代理人的收入，那么短缺也会增加自我实现波动的风险。我们以 2022 年德国能源危机为例说明了这些渠道。
期刊介绍：
The European Economic Review (EER) started publishing in 1969 as the first research journal specifically aiming to contribute to the development and application of economics as a science in Europe. As a broad-based professional and international journal, the EER welcomes submissions of applied and theoretical research papers in all fields of economics. The aim of the EER is to contribute to the development of the science of economics and its applications, as well as to improve communication between academic researchers, teachers and policy makers across the European continent and beyond.
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