Exploring the informativeness and drivers of tone during committee meetings: The case of the Federal Reserve

IF 2.8 2区经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of International Money and Finance Pub Date : 2024-08-20 DOI:10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103161

Hamza Bennani , Davide Romelli

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Abstract

This paper examines the informativeness and drivers of the tone used by FOMC members to gain insights into the decision-making process of the FOMC. We use a bag-of-words approach to measure the tone of transcripts at the speaker-meeting-round level from 1992-2009 and find persistent differences in tone among FOMC members. We also document how Presidents of regional Federal Reserve Banks use a more volatile and positive tone than the Federal Reserve Bank Board of Governors members. Next, we investigate whether the tone used during FOMC deliberations is associated with future monetary policy decisions and study the drivers of differences in tone among FOMC members. Our results suggest that tone is useful in predicting future policy decisions and that differences in tone are mainly associated with the differences in the individual inflation projections of FOMC members.

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探讨委员会会议期间的信息量和语气驱动因素：以美联储为例

本文研究了 FOMC 委员所用语气的信息量和驱动因素，以深入了解 FOMC 的决策过程。我们使用词袋法测量了 1992-2009 年期间发言人-会议轮次级别的记录誊本语气，发现 FOMC 成员之间的语气持续存在差异。我们还记录了地区联邦储备银行行长如何使用比联邦储备银行理事会成员更多变和积极的语气。接下来，我们调查了 FOMC 审议期间所使用的语气是否与未来的货币政策决策有关，并研究了 FOMC 成员之间语气差异的驱动因素。我们的研究结果表明，基调有助于预测未来的政策决策，而基调的差异主要与 FOMC 成员个人通胀预测的差异有关。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of International Money and Finance BUSINESS, FINANCE-

CiteScore

4.20

自引率

4.00%

发文量

141

期刊介绍： Since its launch in 1982, Journal of International Money and Finance has built up a solid reputation as a high quality scholarly journal devoted to theoretical and empirical research in the fields of international monetary economics, international finance, and the rapidly developing overlap area between the two. Researchers in these areas, and financial market professionals too, pay attention to the articles that the journal publishes. Authors published in the journal are in the forefront of scholarly research on exchange rate behaviour, foreign exchange options, international capital markets, international monetary and fiscal policy, international transmission and related questions.