Development and validation of a nomogram for catheter-related thrombosis prediction in children with central venous catheter: a retrospective observational study.
Wangfang Xie, Bin Xu, Xiaofang Lou, Jihua Zhu, Sheng Ye
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
Background: Catheter-related thrombosis (CRT) is a thrombotic complication associated with using central venous catheters (CVCs). Although risk factors for CRT were identified in children, no nomograms or predictive tools are available for the pediatric population with CVCs. This study aimed to develop and validate a prediction model of asymptomatic CRT in children with CVCs.
Methods: This retrospective observational study included consecutive pediatric patients who admitted to the Children's Hospital Zhejiang University School of Medicine and received CVCs between October and December 2021.
Results: This study included 669 patients, 553 (314 males, aged 22.00 [0.36, 180.00] months, 62 with CRT) were in the training set, and 116 (62 males, aged 15.00 [1.13, 156.00] months, 16 with CRT) were in the validation set. Multivariate logistic regression showed that a catheter time of 0-3 days (OR = 0.201, 95%CI: 0.081-0.497, P = 0.001), catheter time of 4-7 days (OR = 0.412, 95%CI: 0.176-0.964, P = 0.041), male (OR = 3.976, 95%CI: 1.864-4.483, P < 0.001), congenital heart diseases (OR = 0.277, 95%CI: 0.078-0.987, P = 0.048), postoperative (OR = 0.161, 95%CI: 0.072-0.360, P < 0.001), and femoral CVC (OR = 2.451, 95%CI: 1.129-5.318, P = 0.002) were independently associated with CRT. The nomogram incorporating these variables showed relatively good discrimination (AUC = 0.77, 95%CI: [0.65, 0.90]) and calibration abilities in the validation set, and the decision curve analysis (DCA) yielded a clinical net benefit.
Conclusion: A prediction model for CRT in children with CVC was established based on catheter time, sex, diseases, postoperative, and catheter vein. The nomogram based on logistic regression model showed favorable predictive performance.
期刊介绍:
BMC Pediatrics is an open access journal publishing peer-reviewed research articles in all aspects of health care in neonates, children and adolescents, as well as related molecular genetics, pathophysiology, and epidemiology.