Joint Occurrence of Extreme Water Level and River Flows in St. Lawrence River Coasts Under Present and Sea Level Rise Conditions

Abstract

In low-lying coastal regions, the joint occurrence of high river flow and high water levels can cause coastal flooding with substantial economic and social implications. Recent studies over Canada's coasts have shown that neglecting the interdependency between flood drivers can underestimate the risk of flooding by up to 50%. However, to date, such interdependency has not been investigated for the coasts of the St. Lawrence River, Estuary and Gulf system (StL), where Sea Level Rise (SLR), along with intensified river peaks, are already threatening these communities. In this study, a copula-based bivariate frequency analysis was applied to quantify the likelihood of occurrence of flooding events under dependent and independent assumptions, for 26 sites along the StL. Furthermore, to quantify the impact of anthropogenic climate change, the joint return period in historical period was compared with that of projected SLR associated with RCP 8.5 for the year 2100. Results show that (a) the independence assumption can underestimate the likelihood of occurrence of flooding event in the Fluvial Section of the StL by up to 30 times and (b) the SLR can increase the likelihood of occurrence of flooding event by up to 50 times in the Estuary and the Gulf and by up to 5 times in the Fluvial Section of the StL. This study highlights the need for explicit consideration of the dependence between flood drivers and of SLR in the delineation of flood maps along the coast of the St. Lawrence.