Optimized green infrastructure planning at the city scale based on an interpretable machine learning model and multi-objective optimization algorithm: A case study of central Beijing, China

Abstract

Green infrastructure (GI) has developed as a sustainable approach to the mitigation of urban floods. While machine learning (ML) models have exhibited advantages in urban flood simulation, their direct application to support the quantitative planning of GI at the city scale remains a challenge. To address this, an interpretable ML model based on support vector machine (SVM) and the Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) approach is integrated with the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II (NSGA-II) in this study. The model is applied to the case of central Beijing, China, and demonstrates a robust performance with a high area under curve (AUC) value of 0.94. The results of the urban flood susceptibility assessment identify the urban-rural transition zone in the study area as being under a greater flood threat. Via model interpretation with SHAP, the dominant roles of GI and grey infrastructure (GrI) in preventing flood are revealed and the non-linear complementarity between the two is demonstrated to be more significant in study units with a GI proportion of less than 0.45. Supported by the NSGA-II-based optimization framework, optimal GI plans under different total implementations of GI are achieved, among which a solution with a 3.21% increase in the total GI area is selected as that with the best investment efficiency. The pattern of GI implementation is suggested to be dispersed and small-scale by model. This study provides a tool with broad application prospects, effectively integrating GI implementation with urban planning. The findings of this study not only provide important references for the determination of the priority areas of new ecological space in Beijing, but also provide areas that share similar characteristics with new insight into GI planning and the management of urban floods.