How will banning motorcycles affect the preferred mode choice of motorcyclists in Hanoi, Vietnam?

Abstract

In rapidly urbanizing regions of low- and middle-income countries as found in Asia, transportation management faces significant challenges, particularly with the popularity of two-wheeled vehicles. While these vehicles offer convenience in Asian megacities, their increasing prevalence has led to many urban traffic issues, including air pollution and traffic management problems. Consequently, several countries have contemplated or implemented bans on motorized two-wheeled vehicles in urban areas. With a forthcoming ban on motorcycles in 2030, this study investigates potential switches in transportation travel modes among motorcyclists. Analyzing factors influencing choices between electric bicycles (e-bikes) and buses, the results indicate a probable widespread adoption of e-bikes over buses post-ban. Income, place of residence, and access to bus stops emerge as key determinants.