{"title":"A Bayesian Analysis of the Probability of the Origin of Life Per Site Conducive to Abiogenesis.","authors":"Manasvi Lingam, Ruth Nichols, Amedeo Balbi","doi":"10.1089/ast.2024.0037","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The emergence of life from nonlife, or abiogenesis, remains a fundamental question in scientific inquiry. In this article, we investigate the probability of the origin of life (per conducive site) by leveraging insights from Earth's environments. If life originated endogenously on Earth, its existence is indeed endowed with informative value, although the interpretation of the attendant significance hinges critically upon prior assumptions. By adopting a Bayesian framework, for an agnostic prior, we establish a direct connection between the number of potential locations for abiogenesis on Earth and the probability of life's emergence per site. Our findings suggest that constraints on the availability of suitable environments for the origin(s) of life on Earth may offer valuable insights into the probability of abiogenesis and the frequency of life in the universe.</p>","PeriodicalId":8645,"journal":{"name":"Astrobiology","volume":"24 8","pages":"813-823"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Astrobiology","FirstCategoryId":"101","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1089/ast.2024.0037","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
The emergence of life from nonlife, or abiogenesis, remains a fundamental question in scientific inquiry. In this article, we investigate the probability of the origin of life (per conducive site) by leveraging insights from Earth's environments. If life originated endogenously on Earth, its existence is indeed endowed with informative value, although the interpretation of the attendant significance hinges critically upon prior assumptions. By adopting a Bayesian framework, for an agnostic prior, we establish a direct connection between the number of potential locations for abiogenesis on Earth and the probability of life's emergence per site. Our findings suggest that constraints on the availability of suitable environments for the origin(s) of life on Earth may offer valuable insights into the probability of abiogenesis and the frequency of life in the universe.
期刊介绍：
Astrobiology is the most-cited peer-reviewed journal dedicated to the understanding of life''s origin, evolution, and distribution in the universe, with a focus on new findings and discoveries from interplanetary exploration and laboratory research.
Astrobiology coverage includes: Astrophysics; Astropaleontology; Astroplanets; Bioastronomy; Cosmochemistry; Ecogenomics; Exobiology; Extremophiles; Geomicrobiology; Gravitational biology; Life detection technology; Meteoritics; Planetary geoscience; Planetary protection; Prebiotic chemistry; Space exploration technology; Terraforming
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