Dissecting the vital role of dietary changes in food security assessment under climate change

Abstract

National and global food security depend on both supply and demand, yet the vast majority of studies on the impact of climate change on food security have focused somewhat myopically on the supply side. Here, we assess planetary implications of the changing climate for food supply, concurrently considering implications of shifts in dietary preferences on food security. From 1990 to 2018, climate change detrimentally impacted on the food production of 92% of nations assessed. During this time, demand decreased at a greater rate than food supply in 28% of countries; food security for 35% of the global population was unperturbed by climate change. On the other hand, 2% of the global population did not benefit from positive impacts of climate change on food production, due to dietary changes faster increasing food demand. If consumers shift dietary preferences en masse towards healthier diets, detrimental impacts of the climate crisis on food security may be abated, although en mass and/or abrupt transitions in dietary preferences are unlikely. Dietary changes can potentially alleviate climate change’s impact on global food supply, benefiting up to 42% of the global population and potentially addressing the food security crisis, according to assessment of dietary changes’ impact on food security.