Association between early blood glucose dynamic trajectory and mortality for critically ill patients with heart failure: Insights from real-world data

Abstract

Aims

This study endeavors to explore the ramifications of early dynamic blood glucose (BG) trajectories within the initial 48 h of intensive care unit (ICU) admission on mortality among critically ill heart failure (HF) patients.

Methods

The study employed a retrospective observational design, analyzing dynamic BG data of HF patients from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV database. The BG trajectory subphenotypes were identified using the hierarchical clustering based on the dynamic time-warping algorithm. The primary outcome of the study was 28-day mortality, with secondary outcomes including 180-day and 1-year mortality.

Results

We screened a total of 21,098 HF patients and finally 15,092 patients were included in the study. Our results identified three distinct BG trajectory subphenotypes: increasing (n = 3503), stabilizing (n = 6250), and decreasing (n = 5339). The increasing subphenotype was associated with the highest mortality risk at 28 days, 180 days, and 1 year. The stabilizing and decreasing subphenotypes showed significantly lower mortality risks across all time points, with hazard ratios ranging from 0.85 to 0.88 (P<0.05 for all). Sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of these findings after adjusting for various covariates.

Conclusions

Increasing BG trajectory within 48 h of admission is significantly associated with higher mortality in patients with HF. It is necessary to devote greater attention to the early BG dynamic changes in HF patients to optimize clinical BG management and enhance patient prognosis.