Temporal and spatial patterns of extreme heat on wheat in China under climate change scenarios

IF 4.5 2区 生物学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Heyu Chen, Yaojie Yue, Qinghua Jiang
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Revealing the spatial-temporal pattern of extreme heat on staple crops is crucial for proposing adaptation strategies to mitigate climate change-related agricultural risks. Studies in this field generally focus on the reproductive stage and rely on a single-staged threshold temperature to construct extreme heat indicators, which particularly neglect the vegetative stage of wheat. Therefore, to measure the extreme heat risks more scientifically across the entire life cycle of wheat, our study defines a new comprehensive extreme heat index (CEHI) that considers specific thresholds in both the reproductive and vegetative stages. In general, under three climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5), approximately 20 % of the wheat-planting regions in China, especially in winter wheat regions such as the North China Plain, the Sichuan Basin, and the Xinjiang Tarim Basin, are projected to face high levels of extreme heat. Meanwhile, from 2010 to 2099, the average growth rates of extreme heat in China under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios are approximately 0.08, 0.06, and 0.1, respectively. By the century's end, the proportion of wheat-planting regions experiencing high and very high levels (CEHI≥0.4) of extreme heat is projected to increase from 18.0 %, 17.9 %, and 18.4 % to 21.4 %, 25.1 %, and 28.9 % under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios. Among them, RCP8.5 has the highest extreme heat severity on wheat in China, followed by RCP4.5, while RCP2.6 has minimal severity. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the proportions of very high, high, moderate, low, and very low levels of extreme heat are 3.4 %, 18.5 %, 16.7 %, 14.9 %, and 46.5 %, respectively. Meanwhile, our study also emphasizes that although higher-latitude spring wheat regions will experience a significantly increasing trend in extreme heat, this may not spell long-term damage to wheat. Therefore, with consideration of varied temperature sensitivities across wheat growth stages, our study indicates that CEHI serves as an effective method to comprehensively and scientifically assess extreme heat on wheat. Furthermore, based on the regional and varietal differences in extreme heat under climate change, our study highlights the importance of developing region- and variety-specific policies to ensure the sustainability of wheat.

气候变化情景下中国小麦极端高温的时空模式
揭示极端高温对主要作物的时空影响模式,对于提出适应战略以减轻气候变化相关农业风险至关重要。该领域的研究一般集中在生育期,并依赖单一阶段的阈值温度来构建极端高温指标,这尤其忽视了小麦的无性期。因此,为了更科学地衡量小麦整个生命周期的极端高温风险,我们的研究定义了一种新的综合极端高温指数(CEHI),该指数同时考虑了生育期和无性繁殖期的特定阈值。总体而言,在三种气候情景(RCP2.6、RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5)下,预计中国约 20% 的小麦种植区,尤其是华北平原、四川盆地和新疆塔里木盆地等冬麦区将面临高水平的极端高温。同时,从 2010 年到 2099 年,在 RCP2.6、RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5 情景下,中国极端高温的平均增长率分别约为 0.08、0.06 和 0.1。到本世纪末,在RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下,预计出现高温和极高温(CEHI≥0.4)极端高温的小麦种植区比例将从18.0%、17.9%和18.4%增加到21.4%、25.1%和28.9%。其中,RCP8.5 对中国小麦的极端高温严重程度最高,其次是 RCP4.5,而 RCP2.6 的严重程度最低。在 RCP8.5 情景下,极端高温程度极高、高、中、低和极低的比例分别为 3.4%、18.5%、16.7%、14.9% 和 46.5%。同时,我们的研究还强调,虽然高纬度春麦区的极端高温将呈显著上升趋势,但这未必会对小麦造成长期损害。因此,考虑到小麦各生长阶段对温度的敏感性不同,我们的研究表明,CEHI 是全面、科学地评估极端高温对小麦影响的有效方法。此外,基于气候变化下极端高温的地区和品种差异,我们的研究强调了制定针对地区和品种的政策以确保小麦可持续发展的重要性。
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来源期刊
Environmental and Experimental Botany
Environmental and Experimental Botany 环境科学-环境科学
CiteScore
9.30
自引率
5.30%
发文量
342
审稿时长
26 days
期刊介绍: Environmental and Experimental Botany (EEB) publishes research papers on the physical, chemical, biological, molecular mechanisms and processes involved in the responses of plants to their environment. In addition to research papers, the journal includes review articles. Submission is in agreement with the Editors-in-Chief. The Journal also publishes special issues which are built by invited guest editors and are related to the main themes of EEB. The areas covered by the Journal include: (1) Responses of plants to heavy metals and pollutants (2) Plant/water interactions (salinity, drought, flooding) (3) Responses of plants to radiations ranging from UV-B to infrared (4) Plant/atmosphere relations (ozone, CO2 , temperature) (5) Global change impacts on plant ecophysiology (6) Biotic interactions involving environmental factors.
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