The potential for an increasing threat of unseasonal temperature cycles to dormant plants

Abstract

Two functional responses largely guide woody plants' survival to winter conditions: cold hardiness and dormancy. Dormancy affects budbreak timing based on chill accumulation. Effects of warming on dormancy may appear time-shifted: fall and winter warming events decrease chill accumulation, delaying budbreak observed in spring. The same warming events also affect cold hardiness dynamics, having immediate implications. As cold deacclimation rates increase with dormancy progression, the same amount of warming has greater damage risk the later it occurs in the season, depending on return of low temperatures. Should frequency of erratic weather increase with climate change, more instances of risk are expected. However, understanding how plants fare through seasons now and in future climates still requires better knowledge of winter physiology.