Critical analysis of the ULF power depression as a possible Tohoku earthquake precursor

IF 1.2 4区地球科学 Q3 Earth and Planetary Sciences

Earthquake Science Pub Date : 2024-08-15 DOI:10.1016/j.eqs.2024.06.003

Vyacheslav A. Pilipenko , Valery A. Martines-Bedenko , Akimasa Yoshikawa , Kirolosse M. Girgis

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Abstract

Among electromagnetic methods of short-term earthquake prediction, an approach is being actively developed based on the phenomenon of magnetic ultra-low-frequency (ULF) power depression occurring a few days before an earthquake. In particular, a nighttime geomagnetic power depression in the band 0.03–0.05 Hz was observed approximately 5 days before the catastrophic Tohoku 2011 earthquake. To verify the reliability of this method, we performed an extended analysis using data from magnetometer arrays JMA, MAGDAS, PWING, and INTERMAGNET. The selected stations included sites close to the epicenter (<300 km) and remote points (∼10000 km). The band-integrated spectral power of nighttime magnetic noise decreased significantly from March 6–9, several days before the earthquake. However, such variations occur simultaneously not only at nearby stations but also at distant stations. During this event, the ULF power depression was caused by low global geomagnetic activity, as evidenced by the planetary index SME. Thus, the depression of geomagnetic ULF noise cannot be considered a reliable short-term precursor.

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超低频功率衰减作为东北地震前兆的批判性分析

在短期地震预测的电磁方法中，目前正在积极开发一种基于地震前几天发生的超低频（ULF）磁场功率衰减现象的方法。特别是，在 2011 年东北灾难性地震发生前约 5 天，观测到 0.03-0.05 Hz 频段的夜间地磁功率衰减。为了验证这种方法的可靠性，我们使用来自 JMA、MAGDAS、PWING 和 INTERMAGNET 磁强计阵列的数据进行了扩展分析。所选站点包括震中附近（300 千米）和偏远点（∼ 10000 千米）。3 月 6 日至 9 日，即地震前几天，夜间磁噪声的带积分频谱功率明显下降。然而，这种变化不仅在附近的台站同时发生，在远处的台站也同样发生。在这次事件中，超低频功率下降的原因是全球地磁活动低迷，行星指数 SME 就是证明。因此，地磁超低频噪声的衰减不能被视为可靠的短期前兆。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Earthquake Science GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS-

CiteScore

1.10

自引率

8.30%

发文量

审稿时长

3 months

期刊介绍： Earthquake Science (EQS) aims to publish high-quality, original, peer-reviewed articles on earthquake-related research subjects. It is an English international journal sponsored by the Seismological Society of China and the Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration. The topics include, but not limited to, the following ● Seismic sources of all kinds. ● Earth structure at all scales. ● Seismotectonics. ● New methods and theoretical seismology. ● Strong ground motion. ● Seismic phenomena of all kinds. ● Seismic hazards, earthquake forecasting and prediction. ● Seismic instrumentation. ● Significant recent or past seismic events. ● Documentation of recent seismic events or important observations. ● Descriptions of field deployments, new methods, and available software tools. The types of manuscripts include the following. There is no length requirement, except for the Short Notes. 【Articles】 Original contributions that have not been published elsewhere. 【Short Notes】 Short papers of recent events or topics that warrant rapid peer reviews and publications. Limited to 4 publication pages. 【Rapid Communications】 Significant contributions that warrant rapid peer reviews and publications. 【Review Articles】Review articles are by invitation only. Please contact the editorial office and editors for possible proposals. 【Toolboxes】 Descriptions of novel numerical methods and associated computer codes. 【Data Products】 Documentation of datasets of various kinds that are interested to the community and available for open access (field data, processed data, synthetic data, or models). 【Opinions】Views on important topics and future directions in earthquake science. 【Comments and Replies】Commentaries on a recently published EQS paper is welcome. The authors of the paper commented will be invited to reply. Both the Comment and the Reply are subject to peer review.