Discouraged exporters, regional resilience and the “Slow Burn” shock of Brexit: Unpacking the trade-related consequences for UK SMEs

Abstract

Invoking the concept of regional resilience, this paper investigates how Brexit has affected the exporting behaviour of UK small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The research found only two UK regions, Northern Ireland and London, remained strongly export-oriented by volume and intensity of exports to the EU. Across most other regions we detected strong levels of disengagement from exporting, whereby “discouraged exporters” may experience longer-term productivity “scarring” effects instigated by reduced exposure to EU markets. Resilience to Brexit is shown to be spatially skewed and most robust in regions spatially proximate to, and in closest regulatory alignment with, the EU.