[Age-period-cohort analysis of the mortality trend of dementia among elderly people aged 60 to 94 years in China from 1982 to 2021].

Q3 Medicine

中华预防医学杂志 Pub Date : 2024-08-06 DOI:10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-20231204-00395

Y Wei, B Liang, J J Li, X J Yan, L J Pei

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Objective: To analyze the trend of dementia mortality rate among individuals aged 60 to 94 years in China from 1982 to 2021. Methods: Utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, the Joinpoint regression model was employed to analyze the trend in the dementia mortality rate among Chinese older adults from 1982 to 2021. The age-period-cohort analysis method was used to decompose the age effect, period effect and cohort effect of dementia mortality data in Chinese elderly people. Results: From 1982 to 2021, the crude mortality rate of dementia in elderly women aged 60-94 in China (133.67/100 000-214.02/100 000) was higher than that in men (70.92/100 000-119.70/100 000), and the age-standardized mortality rate of dementia in women (230.74/100 000-246.87/100 000) was also higher than that in men (132.88/100 000-140.19/100 000). The age-standardized mortality rate of dementia in both genders showed an N-shaped fluctuation trend. The average annual percent change (AAPC) of dementia mortality rate in elderly males aged 60-94 was 0.07% (95%CI: 0.01%-0.13%), and the AAPC of dementia mortality rate in elderly females was -0.01% (95%CI:-0.08%-0.07%). Age effect analysis showed that from the age of 60, the risk of dementia death in males and females increased with age, especially among elderly people aged 75-94 who experienced a rapid increase in dementia mortality rate. The period effect analysis showed that the overall risk of dementia death in elderly men and women aged 60-94 was decreasing, but it had increased from 2017 to 2021. The cohort effect analysis showed that the risk of dementia death was lower in later birth cohorts. Conclusion: From 1982 to 2021, the dementia mortality rate among Chinese older adults aged 60 to 94 years exhibited fluctuations. Particularly, there has been a notable rebound in recent years. Special attention should be directed towards female seniors and those aged 75 to 94 years.

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[1982-2021年中国60-94岁老年人痴呆死亡趋势的年龄-时期-队列分析]。

目的分析1982-2021年中国60-94岁人群痴呆死亡率的变化趋势。方法利用《2021 年全球疾病负担研究》的数据，采用 Joinpoint 回归模型分析 1982 年至 2021 年中国老年人痴呆死亡率的变化趋势。采用年龄-时期-队列分析方法对中国老年人痴呆死亡率数据的年龄效应、时期效应和队列效应进行分解。结果显示1982-2021年，中国60-94岁女性老年痴呆粗死亡率（133.67/100 000-214.02/100 000）高于男性（70.92/100 000-119.70/100 000），女性老年痴呆年龄标准化死亡率（230.74/100 000-246.87/100 000）也高于男性（132.88/100 000-140.19/100 000）。男女老年痴呆症的年龄标准化死亡率呈 N 型波动趋势。60-94岁老年男性痴呆症死亡率的年均百分率变化（AAPC）为0.07%（95%CI：0.01%-0.13%），老年女性痴呆症死亡率的年均百分率变化（AAPC）为-0.01%（95%CI：-0.08%-0.07%）。年龄效应分析表明，从 60 岁开始，男性和女性的痴呆症死亡风险随着年龄的增长而增加，尤其是 75-94 岁的老年人，其痴呆症死亡率迅速上升。时期效应分析表明，60-94 岁老年男性和女性的痴呆死亡风险总体呈下降趋势，但从 2017 年到 2021 年有所上升。队列效应分析表明，出生较晚的队列中痴呆症死亡风险较低。结论是从1982年到2021年，中国60至94岁老年人的痴呆死亡率呈现波动趋势。特别是近年来出现了明显的反弹。应特别关注女性老年人和 75 至 94 岁的老年人。

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来源期刊

中华预防医学杂志 Medicine-Medicine (all)

CiteScore

1.20

自引率

0.00%

发文量

12678

期刊介绍： Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine (CJPM), the successor to Chinese Health Journal , was initiated on October 1, 1953. In 1960, it was amalgamated with the Chinese Medical Journal and the Journal of Medical History and Health Care , and thereafter, was renamed as People’s Care . On November 25, 1978, the publication was denominated as Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine . The contents of CJPM deal with a wide range of disciplines and technologies including epidemiology, environmental health, nutrition and food hygiene, occupational health, hygiene for children and adolescents, radiological health, toxicology, biostatistics, social medicine, pathogenic and epidemiological research in malignant tumor, surveillance and immunization.